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Storms on a Gusty Breeze, TD # 6 Forms in the Atlantic

Tracking the Saharan Dust

Sunday features plenty of showers and storms on a gusty breeze as a tropical wave passes just to our south.  As much as 3 inches of rain are possible, as is localized flooding.  Look for a drying trend late in the day as Saharan dust begins to work in.  Expect a high risk of dangerous rip currents at the Atlantic beaches on Sunday.  Highs on Sunday will be mostly in the upper 80s in the east coast metro area and the Keys and near 90 degrees along the Gulf Coast — but it will feel at least 10 degrees hotter around South Florida.

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Monday will bring a brisk breeze, mostly sunny skies, and periods of showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon.  Monday’s highs will be in the low 90s in the east coast metro area and the Keys, while the Gulf Coast will reach the mid-90s.

Tuesday will feature breezy conditions, a mix of sun and clouds, maybe a morning storm, and plenty of afternoon showers.  Tuesday’s highs will be in the low 90s in the east coast metro area and the Keys and in the mid-90s along the Gulf Coast.

Wednesday will start with a mix of sun and storms.  Showers will move in during the afternoon and linger into the evening.  Wednesday’s highs will be in the low 90s in the east coast metro area and the Keys and in the mid-90s along the Gulf Coast.

Thursday’s forecast calls for mostly sunny skies alternating with periods of showers and storms.  Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the mid-90s.

Apparently, the tropical Atlantic is determined to make up for lost time.  We’re tracking 5 features there right now.

First, the wave that’s making our weather unsettled will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico and eventually affecting the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and northern Mexico.  This wave has a medium chance of becoming a depression.

The wave in the central Atlantic is now Tropical Depression # 6 — but not for long.  It formed about 855 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands late Saturday afternoon.  It was moving west-northwest at 16 miles per hour into an area that’s unfavorable for development.  TD # 6 may not make it to tropical storm status and is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days.

 

The wave in the eastern Atlantic, which we’ve been watching for several days, is likely to become a depression at any time — but it also is not expected to last.  Yet another wave recently emerged from the African coast, and this one has a low chance of becoming a depression this week.

We’re keeping a closer eye on a wave that’s moving through portions of the Lesser Antilles.  It has a medium chance of becoming a depression as it moves west-northwestward into the Caribbean.  It will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the region.  Computer models are not in agreement with the track of this system, but we always pay attention to tropical systems in that part of the world.

Finally, southern California is under a tropical storm warning as Hilary approaches.  This will be the first tropical storm to strike there since 1939.  California and Nevada will see heavy rains (in some cases, a year’s worth), which will lead to flooding and possibly dangerous mudslides.  Effects from Hilary will be felt as far north as Oregon and Idaho.

Donna Thomas has studied hurricanes for two decades. She holds a PhD in history when her experience with Hurricane Andrew ultimately led her to earn a degree in broadcast meteorology from Mississippi State University. Donna spent 15 years at WFOR-TV (CBS4 in Miami-Fort Lauderdale), where she worked as a weather producer with hurricane experts Bryan Norcross and David Bernard. She also produced hurricane specials and weather-related features and news coverage, as well as serving as pool TV producer at the National Hurricane Center during the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Donna also served as a researcher on NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project. Donna specializes in Florida's hurricane history.