Sunburn – The Morning Read Of What’s Hot In Florida Politics – 8.3.21

By Peter Schorsch    

Good Tuesday morning.

Election Day may be more than a year away, but bettors think Gov. Ron DeSantis is a safe bet to win reelection.

The latest odds from New Jersey-based USSportsBonus.com give the Republican incumbent 23/100 odds to secure a second term — roughly an 81% chance for those without a working proficiency in fractional odds.

DeSantis’ chances are down a bit from last week, but the wind has been at his back for a few months now. According to the same bookie, back in May, he boasted a 79% chance to snag another four-year term.

“DeSantis’ odds have not had a significant impact following the recent challenges faced by the state of Florida, which suggests that bookies are still confident in him being reelected,” says US Sportsbonus gambling industry analyst Jay Sanin. “The end of July marked the peak in DeSantis’ chances of winning, so this recent minimal change could mark the beginning of a downward trend depending on how he responds to these challenges.”

That leaves the window open — though only slightly — for the two major Democrats challenging him, U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist (10%) and Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (8%). Essentially, if the race were a roulette wheel, Crist is a four-number combo, and Fried is a three.

The odds will change, of course, once the Democrats pick their nominee.

“It’s not uncommon to see an incumbent candidate heavily favored in an election in which the rival party’s nominee has not been declared,” Sanin said. “But DeSantis is also a top contender in presidential betting markets, which is a good indication that he has a lot of public support.”

Indeed, the Governor currently has a 20% chance to win the GOP nomination in 2024, behind only Donald Trump (25%). He also has an 8% chance to win the presidency, trailing Trump (12.5%), President Joe Biden (20%) and VP Kamala Harris (22%).

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Liberty Partners of Tallahassee announced a pair of high-profile personnel moves on Tuesday, the eve of its 15th year in business.

The personnel moves include Tim Parson’s elevation to vice president of the firm and the addition of Adam Potts as director of governmental affairs.

Parson’s promotion comes after more than five years at Liberty Partners, during which time he led the team through significant client growth in Northwest Florida and statewide.

Liberty Partners President Jennifer Green said Parson will continue to be a key strategic adviser on policy development, public affairs and legislative advocacy while taking on a higher profile role in running the firm.

Potts comes to the firm from the Florida Public Service Commission, where he serves as the chief lobbyist for the utility regulatory body. The Florida State University graduate has a wealth of experience in government affairs, having held positions at the Florida Department of Education, the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice and the Florida Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

“We are very excited to be able to bring someone like Adam onto our team at such an important time in the history of our firm. He brings more than 15 years of experience in both the government sector and political arena. I am confident that his tremendous skills will bring incredible value to all of our clients,” Green said.

Liberty Partners also highlighted its Grants Division, launched last year and led by Katie Taff. The growing practice aims to help clients with both federal and state grant writing and provide grant management services and economic development consulting.

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Spotted — At Sen. Aaron Bean’s annual Amelia Island Gathering at The Ritz-Carlton: Sen. Ben Albritton, as well as Audrey Brown, Scott Dick. Ron LaFace, Allison Kinney, Tracy and Frank Mayernick, Joel Overton, Chris Schoonover, Stephanie Smith and Ted Smith.

 — SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

Tweet, tweet:

—@TaylorLorenz: Officials & influencers hope their pro-vaccination messaging will serve to counter the often very loud vaccine skeptics online. “If we view disinformation as a negative information effort, this campaign is a positive information effort,” @Rob_Flaherty said

—@JamaalBowman: The White House says it doesn’t have authority to extend the eviction moratorium or cancel student debt. But it hasn’t had a problem conducting airstrikes without authorization from Congress.

—@LindsayGrahamSC: I feel like I have a sinus infection, and at present time I have mild symptoms. I will be quarantining for 10 days. I am very glad I was vaccinated because without vaccination, I am certain I would not feel as well as I do now.

—@JakeSherman: So, to review: boat full of lawmakers. One got COVID. All of their votes are necessary to pass the infrastructure bill, which they want to pass this week. Senate doesn’t require masks. Got it. Cool.

—@PaulKrugman: DeSantis has been touting the FL economy — although how well will that economy hold up as potential visitors realize that the Sunshine State has become extremely dangerous and its hospital system is in overload crisis?

—@SContorno: Mary Mayhew was a critical piece of Gov. DeSantis’ early COVID-response team as head of AHCA. It’s interesting to watch the DeSantis administration dismiss her warnings about the recent surge in hospitalizations now that she’s an outsider (CEO of Florida Hospital Association).

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