Sunburn — The Morning Read Of What’s Hot In Florida Politics — 4.12.22

By Peter Schorsch

Good Tuesday morning.

A top-of-Sunburn birthday shoutout to one of our besties, Stephanie Cardozo, External Affairs Director to Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.

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The state’s congressional districts are still a question mark, but the Florida Chamber of Commerce has heaps of data on the new state House and Senate district maps approved by lawmakers in the 2022 Legislative Session.

The Florida Chamber’s political operations subdivision on Monday provided an overview of that data and how it could potentially impact the makeup of the Florida Legislature. The short version: Things are looking good for Florida Republicans.

Chamber research shows the new map is a match for the old one with 45 solid Republican seats. However, the number of seats that are competitive but lean toward Republicans has increased. With President Joe Biden, and by extension Democrats, struggling in the polls, a handful of districts that typically lean toward Democrats are also in play.

One example is HD 91, which is currently held by Democratic Rep. Emily Slosberg-King, who announced earlier this year that she would not run for re-election. Data shows Democrats have a four-point advantage in the Boca Raton-based district, but if Democrats continue slipping in the polls it will be very much in play.

Democratic Rep. Allison Tant, who is running in the new HD 10, could also face a tough re-election battle since the district has added Republican-leaning portions of Jefferson and Madison counties. Her fate will likely be decided based on turnout among younger and minority voters in the Tallahassee portion of the district.

Meanwhile, the Senate map will see Republicans on defense in two districts. The first is SD 10, where incumbent Republican Sen. Jason Brodeur is likely to face Democratic Rep. Joy Goff-Marcil. The other is SD 36, where incumbent Republican Sen. Ileana Garcia is competing against Democratic Rep. Michael Grieco. Garcia’s seat, in particular, has become more favorable for Republicans, data shows.

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Here are a few things I’m reading:

 — The President’s party typically underperforms in the midterms, and the trend will likely continue in 2022. In fact, it might even be worse than expected. According to Slow Boring, Democrats are currently expected to capture 48.7% of the vote nationwide, which is about 1.2 points above average. But once polling bias and the potential for a further decline in the polls over the next seven months are factored in, it looks like Democrats are sleepwalking into a disaster.

 — Big-city Republicans are increasingly outliers within their party, according to Alex Samuels of FiveThirtyEight. Only a few bother to vote in primary elections — just 6% turned out for a recent one in Austin, Tex., for example. Even fewer are willing to wear their party affiliation on their sleeve. As one Texas voter recalled: “This primary cycle, I didn’t see any Republican signs in my area, but in 2020 I saw a lot of signs for (Republican) Rep. Chip Roy.”

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— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@ElectProject: Florida’s Legislature has punted congressional redistricting to (Ron) DeSantis. The moves put the state legislative districts in jeopardy. If the Legislature doesn’t think the 5th CD is protected by Florida’s constitution, there are many state legislative districts that aren’t

—@ChristinaPushaw: I don’t have a problem with people who do rain-dances every morning. Just don’t demand that the government mandate rain-dances as a mitigation against wildfires.

—@fineout: There’s more: Another new filing from today show that Disney also gave $65k on Jan. 10 to the Fla. Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee led by @Kathleen4SWFL

Tweet, tweet:

Tweet, tweet:

—@JacobPerryFL: I know that no one really cares about this, but the Governor of Florida is basically demanding that the Legislature draw Congressional maps to his own liking, which is blatantly and embarrassingly unconstitutional. But let’s ignore it all, I guess.

—@KKFla737: In 49 states, either legislators, independent commissions or courts draw congressional districts. In Florida, one man, the Governor draws them. Anyone care to continue (wrongly) claiming (random GOPer) is more autocratic or dangerous than DeSantis?!? He’s one-of-a-kind.

Tweet, tweet:

—@BrittanyWallman: Quite a few people in this new jury pool say they can’t afford to serve on this long jury to decide whether Nikolas Cruz should be executed. Many are self-employed or work for an entity that won’t pay while they’re serving.

—@ArekSarkissian: Live from downtown — @TallyPD is pursuing a car traveling the wrong way on Duval. Went whizzing by the College Road intersection.