Redistricting Shuffle: What’s The State Of Play In Florida’s Congressional Contests Under Ron DeSantis’ New Map?

By Jacob Ogles

A new congressional map resets the literal bounds for most of Florida’s federal political contests.

So, which races have already been materially changed?

The map has passed the Florida Legislature but awaits a signature from Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose office proposed the cartography. As soon as it’s enacted, progressive groups plan to challenge it in court, but campaigns are already making plans for this to be Florida’s Midterm map.

The cartography doesn’t change for the Panhandle and northeast Florida, but here are the decisions already made in response to the redistricting, and the state of play for other candidates.

Chaos in Kissimmee

The National Republican Congressional Committee already listed U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, a Kissimmee Democrat, as a target for the 2026 Midterms, but he always seemed a lofty one. Under the new lines, however, Florida’s 9th Congressional District shifts from a Democrat-leaning seat where more than 51% supported Kamala Harris for President to a Republican territory where more than 58% voted for Donald Trump’s return to power.

But Soto signaled he’s still running in that seat. While some speculated he might challenge U.S. Rep. Cory Mills, a scandalized Republican in Florida’s 7th Congressional District, a run in CD 9 would make him the only incumbent in the race. He said before maps were published, he had no intention of running against U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost, an Orlando Democrat who kept the bulk of his own District under the new map.

That’s not too surprising, as most neighboring districts are more Republican leaning, and his Kissimmee base remains in the District, even if he’s now running in large portions of Florida he never ran before. The District, under the new map, stretches from Kissimmee south to Moore Haven in Glades County, then reaches east, with a leg of the District that includes all of Indian River County on the Atlantic Coast.

The cartography immediately grabbed the interest of some prominent Republicans in the region. Osceola County Commissioner Ricky Booth said he’s exploring a run. Consultants close to former state Rep. Mike de la Rosa, whose former rural Hispanic statehouse District fits nicely in the proposed CD 9 borders, also say he’s looking. Plus, five other Republicans already filed in CD, most notably 2024 GOP nominee Thomas Chalifoux, who remains a candidate in the District according to the FEC.

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Dan Webster announced amid the redistricting decisions that he would not seek re-election, though he stressed it was due to family health challenges. That has set off a run for his seat, which looks to span from The Villages in Lake and Sumter Counties over to west Orange County.

Lake County Commissioner Anthony Sabatini, a one-time Primary opponent for Webster, filed for the non-open Florida’s 11th Congressional District, as did local pro-Trump comedian Tim Wilkins. Sources told Florida Politics former state Rep. Jason Fischer, now U.S. Rep. Randy Fine’s Chief of Staff, is also exploring a run, and social media influencer Laura Loomer, who challenged Webster in 2022, also noted the race will be open this cycle.

Since the retirement news, a candidate list has grown to six Republicans, four Democrats and a Libertarian, with Democrat Barbie Harden Hall, who challenged Webster last cycle, making a big fundraising push. Still, more than 57% of voters under the new lines supported Trump in 2024.

Tumult in Tampa Bay

Much of the speculation in the Bay Area surrounds U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, a Tampa Democrat in Congress for the past 20 years. The new map has brought a political threat like none she’s faced. But the incumbent said she’s staking claim to CD 14, even though it goes from a District Harris carried with 53% in 2024 to one Trump won with almost 55%.

The race now will almost certainly draw a high-profile Republican opponent, though it appears unlikely she will have to face any GOP incumbents.

There had been speculation that U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee might try to Primary Castor. Still, the Tampa-area Republican feels content to follow CD 15, even as it shifts from an inland District to one that swings west to include Citrus and Pasco counties. But she goes from a seat the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently targeted as an opportune flip to one where 59% of voters backed Trump in 2024. She’s endorsed by Trump, and the largest share of the voters is in Hillsborough County. While the new lines did draw a GOP Primary challenge from Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion, Lee sits on more than $1.7 million in cash on hand.

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis will seek re-election in Florida’s 12th Congressional District, while U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan in Florida’s 16th Congressional District is retiring. And while Florida’s 13th Congressional District shifted north into Pasco County, it retains much of the Republican base for U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a St. Petersburg Republican. Hence, she’s unlikely to look east.

But some of the field who were competing for Buchanan’s seat may yet see Castor as a better target. While Sydney Gruters, the spouse of Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, is keeping her eyes on CD 16, Eddie Speir, a former Primary challenger to Buchanan, said he hasn’t decided if he should run in CD 14 against Castor or run for the open CD 16. John Peters, a former Castor opponent, has also started taking shots at Castor again online. Meanwhile, two Republicans already challenging Castor, Dan Weldon and Rocky Rochford, have both raised more than either of those CD 16 candidates.

In the CD 16 race, shifting south St. Petersburg into the Manatee-heavy seat has attracted one major Democrat into the contest, former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner. But the seat is also one Trump won with 56% of the vote and favors whoever wins the GOP nomination.

Southwest Florida saga

This Republican-rich portion of the state knew from almost the start of the cycle that it would have an open seat because U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds was running for Governor. But Florida’s 19th Congressional District looks radically different under the new map than it did before. Once the District for the most populated coastal communities from Cape Coral to Marco Island, Lee County seat Fort Myers will now sit in Florida’s 17th Congressional District. At the same time, Marco Island is in the Peninsula spanning Florida’s 22nd Congressional District.

U.S. Rep. Greg Steube, a Sarasota Republican, said he will seek re-election in the Sarasota-to-Fort-Myers spanning CD 17. But what of the crowded field to succeed Donalds?

Most of the Republicans running say they will stay in the contest for CD 19. That includes fundraising leaders Jim Oberweis and Jim Schwartzel, as well as media-savvy candidates Catalina Lauf and Ola Hawatmeh. Former U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn, a former North Carolinian now living in Cape Coral, hasn’t replied to texts on the matter, nor has Chris Collins, another former Congressman who moved from New York to Southwest Florida.

But sources on other campaigns believe Collins could weigh running in the new CD 22, which appears to have no natural incumbent. That seat stretches from Marco Island across the Everglades and Belle Glade to Wellington and Westlake in Palm Beach County. The big question may be whether those eastern portions, which also include rural Broward County, make this a South Florida seat.

Southland shakeup

The greatest speculation centers on the candidate field in South Florida, which, under the current map, is home to five of Florida’s eight Democratic U.S. Representatives. The new map leaves just three seats where a majority of voters supported Harris over Trump.

DeSantis’ office made no bones about an intent to tear apart Florida’s 20th Congressional District, a seat currently vacant after the resignation of former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, a Miramar Democrat. The seat was long considered to be protected by the Voting Rights Act, though that now comes under question following a ruling on redistricting by the U.S. Supreme Court.

DeSantis said that ruling alone warrants changing Florida’s line, though interestingly, he leaves Sunrise, Plantation and north Fort Lauderdale in CD 20 while drawing a more compact jurisdiction. Nearly 70% of the voting age population is still part of a racial minority, but only 42% is Black, compared to more than 50% under the current map. It’s also still a seat where almost 68% of voters backed Trump.

Some have suspected U.S. Rep Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Weston Democrat left homeless on the map, will run for this seat, and she hasn’t publicly ruled anything out. (CBS Miami’s Jim DeFede called this the “most likely scenario”). But several Black candidates, including Cherfilus-McCormick, are already running. The Broward County Democratic Black Caucus has urged Wasserman Schultz not to run in CD 20, and Democratic candidate Elijah Manley said a non-Black candidate would become complicit in DeSantis’ project to erase Black representation.

Wasserman Schultz notably has previously represented parts of the proposed CD 22 as well, but as noted before, that seat now stretches all the way to the Gulf Coast in Southwest Florida. This leaves the longest serving Democrat in Florida’s delegation with a big decision, one that sources close to the Weston Democrat expect her to make this week.

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, a Miami-Dade Democrat and the only other Black Congresswoman in Florida, looks likely to run in Florida’s 24th Congressional District, a seat Harris won with almost 69% of the vote. About 48% of the voting population there is Black, and it overlaps the CD 24 District she now represents. Likewise, U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, a West Palm Beach Democrat, still appears to have a home, as the proposed Florida’s 23rd Congressional District overlaps substantially with the District she represents now.

U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Parkland Democrat whose District was torn apart by DeSantis, also hasn’t formally announced where he will run. But sources close to the Congressman say he has his eyes on the newly redrawn Florida’s 25th Congressional District. That’s a narrow coastal District that runs from Boca Raton in Palm Beach County south to Miami Beach. But notably, two Republican opponents, Scott Singer and George Moraitis, have also already announced their own switch to run in CD 25. The NRCC already targeted Moskowitz, and almost 54% of voters in the new seat supported Trump last cycle.

Wasserman Schultz could potentially run for that seat as well, but many Democratic consultants believe the two Democratic incumbents don’t want to end up in Primaries with delegation colleagues.

As for Republicans in South Florida, the DeSantis map did little to shake up seats held by U.S. Reps. Carlos Giménez and María Elvira Salazar, both Miami-Dade GOP incumbents.

U.S. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart, dean of the delegation, sees Florida’s 26th Congressional District shed its Southwest Florida portions. That means he’s now in a District Trump won with under 59% of the vote, instead of a deep-red seat where 67% backed the President. The Hialeah Republican said he’s happy running for re-election in the seat.