Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 7.8.22

The Lincoln Project says Gov. Ron DeSantis has supplanted Donald Trump as “the standard-bearer for the authoritarian movement formerly known as the GOP,” and it’s rubbing it in with a new ad.

Titled “Star,” the 30-second spot asserts that DeSantis has “betrayed” the former President to become a star and is “raising millions” and “winning straw polls and fans” by stealing Trump’s act — and it’s working.

“You made him, and he betrayed you. He’s laughing at you, running against you; he’s taking everything from you. And by the time you fight back, it will be too late,” the ad narrator says, stoking behind-the-scenes rumors of tension between the two Republicans.

In a news release announcing the ad, Lincoln Project’s Rick Wilson takes it a step further.

”DeSantis has taken everything from Trump but his trophy wife. DeSantis and his team are already picking out curtains in the White House and enjoying the Jan. 6 Commission’s devastating attacks on Trump,” he said.

“DeSantis is taking Donald’s political money, dominating Trump in the headlines, and getting rave reviews from Fox and the conservative media. Trump is impotent, weak, and lost on how to fight back against a younger, thinner, and flashier version of himself.”

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

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FiveThirtyEight recently updated its forecast for the 2022 elections, and it looks like a red wave is coming.

Most of us knew that already — the political climate has been trending toward the GOP for months — but FiveThirtyEight’s model underscores just how big a beating Democrats are expected to take in November.

The broad strokes outlook is backed up by solid statistical modeling and passes the smell test. It’s clear that, as of today, DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio are cruising toward re-election. It’s also clear that Florida’s U.S. House delegation will get redder.

But what’s not clear is who, specifically, will be in the delegation that heads to Washington in January. FiveThirtyEight must know something the rest of us don’t because their forecast presumes to know the winners of Florida’s Primary Elections two months before polls close.

In some races, they made safe assumptions. They took some big leaps in others.

The most glaring is the race for Florida’s 15th Congressional District, where they anointed Rep. Jackie Toledo as the presumptive Republican nominee.

Toledo has all the ingredients needed to win the GOP nomination: She is running a competent campaign, raising a decent amount of cash, has a solid name ID, and has a political record that will play well among GOP voters. It won’t be a shocker if she ends up becoming a Congresswoman.

But one could say the same about former Secretary of State Laurel Lee or Sen. Kelli Stargel.

Lee launched her campaign less than two months ago, but she has hit the ground running. She has already earned endorsements from Attorney General Ashley Moody and Jay Collins, a DeSantis-backed state Senate candidate, and a recent fundraiser invitation shows several other Republican leaders are backing her bid.

And though Demetries Grimes and Kevin McGovern are long shots, their presence on the Primary ballot means the eventual GOP nominee could win with less than a third of the vote.

FiveThirtyEight gets a lot of things right, but this is the type of assumption their detractors point to when they miss the mark.

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Public affairs firm Firehouse Strategies has brought on Evan Berryhill as a vice president working in its Florida team.

Berryhill was a Deputy Communications Director on DeSantis‘ gubernatorial campaign and has worked in political communications with several other Republican candidates and organizations, including GOPAC and in the office of West Virginia U.S. Rep. David McKinley.

He is a West Virginia native and a graduate of West Virginia University and the West Virginia University College of Law.

The hire comes as Firehouse Strategies continues to expand its footprint in the Sunshine State. The firm opened its first Florida office this year and tapped veteran Florida political operatives Todd Reid and Emily Brown to run the operation.

“We are thrilled to have Evan join our team, expanding our capabilities in Florida and throughout the Southeast and providing our clients services second to none,” Reid said.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

_@HugoLowell: Jan. 6 committee members Jamie Raskin and Stephanie Murphy will lead Tuesday hearing on Trump sending extremist groups to DC and pinpointing the 6th, and Elaine Luria and Adam Kinzinger will lead expected Thursday prime-time hearing on inside the WH during the Capitol attack.

—@Mattyglesias: The extent to which Ron DeSantis has emerged as a presidential front-runner without saying anything on really big, banal, incredibly obvious policy questions like “should abortion be legal?” or “what’s up with Social Security?” is remarkable.

—@SenPizzo: If women’s reproductive rights are now left up to the states, then it should be left up to the PEOPLE of those states, not the legislature. Let’s put it on the ballot.

—@JustinBaragona: 1. Dave Rubin is suspended from Twitter for deliberately deadnaming Elliot Page. 2. Lasts only 48 hours before caving and deleting the tweet, though he “strongly considered” standing by his principles. 3. Gets sympathetic Fox segment about his Twitter ordeal. Grift complete!

Tweet, tweet:

42 shell bursts from the show Monday night. @capitalweather pic.twitter.com/jPjE8DGO8d

— Kevin Ambrose (@dcstormchaser) July 7, 2022

—@HughGrant: Dear World, You may be wondering what happens next in terms of the British constitution. The answer is that 3 newspaper owners — all of whom are non-domiciled in the UK for tax purposes — get together and choose our next Prime Minister or “Poodle.” The Queen then anoints them.

—@James_Caan: It is with great sadness that we inform you of the passing of Jimmy on the evening of July 6. The family appreciates the outpouring of love and heartfelt condolences and asks that you continue to respect their privacy during this difficult time. End of tweet