Home Weather Rain Returns Here as We Watch the Tropics

Rain Returns Here as We Watch the Tropics

rain

image4South Florida will see rain return on Wednesday as we continue to watch the tropics very closely. Wednesday features early east coast showers and storms on a building ocean breeze, followed by some periods of sun, highs around 90 degrees, and widespread afternoon storms, with a concentration over the interior and western suburbs of Miami-Dade and Broward.

On Thursday, more widespread storms will develop throughout the day all around South Florida and will last into the evening. Thursday’s highs will be around the 90 degree mark. The ocean breeze will lead to a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents at the Atlantic beaches on Thursday, lasting at least through Friday.

Storms will be passing through South Florida on Friday, but there will be periods of sun as well. Highs will be around 90 degrees.

The weekend weather will depend on the tropics, but expect at least stormy periods and gusty winds on Saturday and Sunday — and conditions could deteriorate rapidly.

Our weekend weather will be influenced by wave that’s now moving through the Leeward Islands. Reconnaissance aircraft couldn’t find a center of circulation during flights into the wave on Tuesday, but satellite images do indicate an area of low pressure is possibly forming. The National Hurricane Center now gives the wave a high chance of developing into a depression or tropical storm within the next 5 days.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_animMost of the computer models indicate that the system will be in or near the central Bahamas on Friday, and it will encounter very warm ocean waters, more moist air and less wind shear — conditions favorable for development. The models don’t agree yet on the course or strength of the system beyond that point, and the model runs late Wednesday and on Thursday morning will be crucial.

rainThe bottom line is that it will have some effect on the Bahamas and South Florida, so we’ll need to watch it very closely and be ready to take action quickly if watches and warnings are issued.

We all know the cost of not being prepared — as anyone who lived through Hurricane Andrew (24 years ago today) will tell you.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gaston is expected to reach hurricane strength on Wednesday. At 5 am Wednesday, Gaston was located near 14.9 North, 38.6 West, and was moving west-northwest at 17 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds were 70 miles per hour. Gaston’s future track will keep it in the open waters of the Atlantic.

Donna Thomas has studied hurricanes for two decades. She holds a PhD in history when her experience with Hurricane Andrew ultimately led her to earn a degree in broadcast meteorology from Mississippi State University. Donna spent 15 years at WFOR-TV (CBS4 in Miami-Fort Lauderdale), where she worked as a weather producer with hurricane experts Bryan Norcross and David Bernard. She also produced hurricane specials and weather-related features and news coverage, as well as serving as pool TV producer at the National Hurricane Center during the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Donna also served as a researcher on NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project. Donna specializes in Florida's hurricane history.