The 2025 Triple Crown trail has taken an unusual turn. Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty bypassed the Preakness, and his absence shifted the narrative from the usual chase for a sweep to strategic rest and rivalries.
As trainers and owners place greater importance on strategic race spacing rather than tradition, attention now turns to the Belmont Stakes. Journalism’s hard-fought Preakness victory has maintained excitement in the Triple Crown series, setting up a highly anticipated showdown at this year’s Belmont—once again held at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York.
Skipping the Preakness, as some contenders have done, shifts the competitive landscape, offering fresh legs but raising questions about readiness. This strategic choice continues to influence how the Belmont—known as the “Test of the Champion”—is approached and understood.
Sovereignty’s Skip: Strategy Over History
Three days after his emphatic Derby victory, Sovereignty’s team confirmed he would not run in the Preakness. The decision eliminated the chance of a Triple Crown winner this year, but it wasn’t without purpose. The colt’s connections are betting on freshness over tradition, opting for a five-week rest to target the Belmont on June 7 at Saratoga.
For many, it’s a sign of the times. “Load management,” once a term reserved for professional basketball, has infiltrated horse racing, influencing how elite 3-year-olds are campaigned. Reputable sportsbooks like FanDuel have taken notice and adjusted their odds in response to this evolving trend.
This approach isn’t unprecedented. In fact, recent history shows a pattern. Country House in 2019 and Rich Strike in 2022 both skipped the Preakness after Derby wins, and the resulting races drew significantly fewer viewers. With Sovereignty out of the Preakness, NBC experienced another dip—one that may reignite broader debates over the structure of the Triple Crown.
Still, Sovereignty’s decision was calculated. With 17.7 million viewers watching him claim the roses, the colt’s stock soared. Now, with extra rest and pointed training, he is poised to challenge the likes of Journalism and possibly Baeza in what could be a historic Belmont clash.
Journalism’s Grit Fuels Rematch Hopes
After being sandwiched between rivals before surging past Gosger in the final furlong, Journalism crossed the wire first at Pimlico. It wasn’t just a win—it was a statement. The Preakness victory defied conventional logic. He had raced just two weeks prior and still had the reserves to chase down a quality horse like Gosger in the stretch.
Trainer Michael McCarthy recognized the performance as a history-making blend of courage and athleticism, an effort that few could have predicted. For fans of horse racing betting, it was the kind of upset that energizes a season – and emphasizes the role that research plays in successful betting.
Now comes the tougher decision: Does Journalism return rested for the Belmont, with the aim of completing all three legs of the Triple Crown series in just 35 days? While McCarthy is keeping his options open, he acknowledged the challenge of high- impact racing three times in such a short span. Yet he didn’t rule it out either. “It would be hard to offer up any excuses if the horse keeps doing this well,” he said on May 18.
Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners’ Aron Wellman echoed a wait-and-see approach, saying, “Stall 33 will tell us”—referring to Journalism’s stable. According to Wellman, preparations are underway should the colt signal readiness for the Belmont.
The next move will likely be shipping out of Pimlico, which is now under renovation. Saratoga is the frontrunner for his next base, but heading straight there doesn’t guarantee a Belmont start.
Who’s In—and Who’s Not
With Sovereignty confirmed and Journalism still undecided, the Belmont field remains in flux. Preakness runner-up Gosger is recovering well at Churchill Downs, though his participation is still up in the air. Sandman, who finished third, will head to Belmont Park but skip the race in favor of a run in the Jim Dandy Stakes.
Bob Baffert’s Goal Oriented, who finished fourth in the Preakness, is returning to the West Coast and won’t run in the Belmont. His other 3-year-old, Rodriguez—winner of the Wood Memorial—is a possible contender. Todd Pletcher’s River Thames came out of the Preakness in good shape, but his status for the Belmont is still uncertain.
Heart of Honor, fifth in his U.S. debut, is headed to Saratoga but may run in the Belmont. Baeza, third in the Kentucky Derby, and Hill Road, Peter Pan winner, are also contenders.
Steve Asmussen’s Clever Again, ninth at Pimlico, sustained minor cuts but is recovering and remains a Belmont longshot.
The Toll of Tight Schedules
The Triple Crown’s traditional five-week format is facing criticism. Once a gold standard, it’s now seen by some as outdated. Modern horses aren’t trained as intensively as in the past, with. NBC analyst Randy Moss, noting, “Trainers believe today’s horses are not as robust.” He is one of the many pundits who supports extending the breaks between races to four or five weeks.
This year’s viewer figures support his view. Sovereignty’s absence from the Preakness caused another viewer drop. While most ad slots sell out after the Derby, the hope of a Triple Crown sweep remains the major draw. Without it, fan interest wanes.
This reality may push organizers to rethink the format to protect both the series’ relevance and the sport’s health. If top horses skip races, the Triple Crown risks losing its prestige.
What’s at Stake in the Belmont
With the 2025 Belmont shifting to Saratoga due to renovations, the new setting adds unpredictability. The field remains in flux, with potential for a rematch between Derby and Preakness winners if Journalism recovers in time.
Even without that clash, drama is likely. Sovereignty aims to cement his standing, while contenders like Baeza and Rodriguez seek their moment.
Every choice reflects concern for horse welfare, but also shapes the Belmont’s impact and the legacy of today’s champions. As Saratoga prepares to host, one question looms: will fans get the showdown they crave? If so, this Belmont could be unforgettable
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