Trump has been laying the groundwork for challenging the outcome of the presidential election again if he loses again. He regularly warns audiences that Democrats will cheat their way to victory. He repeats claims about the 2020 election that have been debunked. He demeans Democrats as incompetent and ineffective, and yet at the same time suggests they are capable of pulling off a vast election conspiracy of switched votes, stolen ballots, coups and fraud. He never says he will accept the outcome of the election if victory eludes him.
Here’s an assessment of the claims made by Trump and his allies — some repurposed from those he made in 2020, and some newly conjured for 2024. Be alert for projection, a hallmark of Trump claims: He likes to accuse others of what he himself has done or would try.
1. Migrant noncitizens will vote in droves
What Trump says. Trump raises this claim in almost every venue. “A lot of these illegal immigrants coming in, they’re trying to get them to vote,” Trump said in his Sept. 10 debate with Vice President Kamala Harris. “And that’s why they’re allowing them to come into our country.” He frames the border surge during Joe Biden’s presidency as a diabolical plot to swing the election. “They can’t even speak English, they don’t even know what country they’re in practically, and these people are trying to get them to vote,” he said in the debate. Trump’s claims have been echoed repeatedly by Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of the X social media platform, who has posted on this issue dozens of times and who himself is an immigrant who worked in the country illegally before he became a citizen. Many Republican lawmakers, such as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), have also made these claims.
The facts. Federal law bans noncitizens from voting in federal elections, including races for president, vice president, Senate or House of Representatives.
Under a law adopted in 1996, noncitizens who vote can face a fine or a prison term as long as a year, or both —
not to mention deportation. A majority of states — 36 — request or require voters to show identification when they vote,
according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Increasingly, states also are seeking ways to require proof of citizenship to vote or are considering ways to update voter lists to eliminate any noncitizens. There is scattered evidence of noncitizens voting in federal elections — sometimes by mistake (such as erroneously thinking they were eligible while getting a driver’s license), but also knowingly. These cases are an infinitesimal percentage of total votes cast.
