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Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.5.22

 Good Wednesday morning.

For 10 years, this little girl, now a young woman, has grown up before your eyes. Ella Joyce doesn’t know it, but she is part of The Process.

She met the President of the United States when she was three weeks old. We changed her diaper in the office of the Senate Majority Leader. Her godfather is one of the most feared political consultants in Florida politics (Anthony Pedicini); her-best-friend-who-is-Mommy’s-best-friend is one of the most beloved political players in the state (Stephanie Smith). She had her own whiteboard to track the Electoral College for the 2020 presidential election.

Ella Joyce Schorsch, aboard the Disney Wish, September 2022.

Of course, if you asked Ella, she would tell you she really doesn’t like politics, even though she is enthralled by history. That’s OK. She knows it’s Daddy’s business (and that it was also Mommy’s business before Mommy became Mommy.)

I say it each year, but Michelle and I could not be prouder of Ella Joyce. Not because of how she scores on tests or rides her ponies. Like all parents, I’m sure, we love her for the moments no one else gets to see. For moments not broadcast on Instagram.

I also and especially love Ella Joyce for the man she has made me become. If my Mother raised me and Michelle elevated me into genuine adulthood, the presence of Ella Joyce made me become a real man, whatever and everything that entails. I know this for sure: I would not be on this journey to better health if the main motivation were not so I could be present in Ella’s life for as many years as possible.

Happy birthday, Ella Joyce.

___

Gov. Ron DeSantis is leading U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist by double digits, according to the latest survey from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy.

The pollster asked 800 likely General Election voters whom they planned to vote for in November and found the incumbent Republican with 52% support compared to 41% who said they would cast their ballot for Crist. The margin is well outside the poll’s 3.5-percentage-point margin of error.

Fence-sitters account for another 6% while 1% of those polled said they planned to vote for one of the minor candidates in the race.

DeSantis’ advantage is clear in all regions except for South Florida, where Crist leads 53%-39%. The former Governor, now Congressman, also holds a narrow 48%-45% lead among women.

The Governor is mopping up with most other demos, though — he has sizable leads among men (60%-34%), white voters (62%-31%), and voters over 50 (56%-39%). The gap is smaller among younger voters, though DeSantis still holds a 47%-43% edge among those under 50.

DeSantis also tops Crist 52%-39% among third- and no-party voters, a crucial bloc, while fewer Republicans than Democrats say they plan to defect and vote across the aisle.

The Governor’s lead in the horserace was accompanied by high job approval numbers — 55% of respondents said they were pleased with DeSantis’ performance while 42% found him lacking. The plus-13 rating goes down as his highest since March 2019, two months after his inauguration.

However, the poll was conducted Sept. 26-28, mostly before Hurricane Ian decimated Southwest Florida and caused severe damage in other areas of the state.

“It will be important to see if (DeSantis) can maintain or improve (his approval rating) in the coming weeks, as his leadership will be tested by state attempts to repair and recover from the damage inflicted by Hurricane Ian,” Mason-Dixon said.

___

A few other thoughts:

⚖ — A new pandemic trend: balance in who is dying from COVID-19. As David Leonhardt writes for The New York Times, Black and Hispanic Americans are no longer dying at a higher rate than White Americans. One possible explanation is that vaccine hesitancy is an affliction that affects mostly Republican, who are, in turn, mostly White.

📤 — Most people discuss their problems with family, friends or even therapists. Not Adam Dalva. In a piece published by The Atlantic, the writer details how — and why — he began writing to Jeb Bush about the adversities in his personal and professional life. After many years and many emails, the former Governor wrote back.

🎯 — After mailers went out to Panhandle voters depicting a Black Republican candidate for Senate as a shooting target, Democrats should waste no time condemning the incumbent the mailer was meant to support — Loranne Ausley. The mailer was racist at worst, tone-deaf at best. Read more here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

@TheLiamNissan: The fact that Herschel Walker is being defended by every opponent of abortion in America right now means it was never about abortion and it was always about controlling women.

Tweet, tweet:

@ChrisLatvala: Democrats are losing it over DeSantis wearing rain boots. The same Governor who hours earlier sat in church paying respects to a LEO who was killed in the line of duty. No fanfare ab his attendance. Absent from the funeral? The Rep who represented Pinellas Co who wants to be Gov

Tweet, tweet:

Tweet, tweet:

Tweet, tweet:

@DaveTrotter101: Again with your friendly daily reminder: The Florida Constitution says in Article VI, Section 5: A General Election may be suspended or delayed due to a state of emergency or impending emergency pursuant to general law. So yeah, keep that in mind.

— DAYS UNTIL —

Supervisors of Elections vote-by-mail mailing deadline for General Election — 1; 22-23 NHL season begins — 2; deadline to register for General Election — 7; WPEC televised debate in Florida Governor’s race — 7; ‘Before You Vote’ TV debates (Senate) — 13; NBA season tips off — 13; Taylor Swift’s ‘Midnights’ release — 16; Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum — 19; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘The Passenger’ releases — 20; Jon Meacham’s ‘And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle’ releases — 20; City & State Florida Digital Summit — 22; Early voting begins for General Election — 24; 2022 General Election — 34; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 37; ‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 37; FITCon 2022 begins — 43; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 43; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 47; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 50; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 59; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 59; McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 62; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 72; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 88; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 119; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 135; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 136; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 153; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 170; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 195; 2023 Session Sine Die — 212; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 212; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 240; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 289; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 394; ‘Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 408; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 541; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 660; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 660; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 765; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 943.


Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

The post Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.5.22 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..

FloridaPolitics, excerpt posted on  SouthFloridaReporter.com

Republished with permission 

This article originally appeared here and was republished with permission.

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