Rent levels dropped in September for the first time in six months after coming within $2 of the historical high record a month before. The -2.02 percent dip from August knocked more than $40 off the national median price and is the largest monthly monetary decrease since prices dropped more than $50 from August to September 2022.
The national median rent price now stands at $2,011, the cheapest price recorded since April of this year.
Year over year, prices are up 0.40 percent, equivalent to an $8 increase in median rent nationally. A combination of new inventory, lower-than-usual demand and price comparisons to record highs a year ago have worked together to keep rent growth below normal rates for most of this year. September was the sixth month in a row yearly price changes have been less than 1 percent, and the eighth month since prices have been up less than 2 percent year over year.
If patterns over the last year hold, the monthly drop in asking rents could indicate a return to normal seasonal price changes that eluded the market during the pandemic.
September 2022 was a mile marker in rent prices, ending a run of double-digit yearly gains that began in October 2021. Over that time, rents rose over 11.5 percent, climbing from $1,839 to $2,054 in August 2022. Prices that September were still up 8.83 percent but began a decline — led by decreased demand — which lasted until rents bottomed out at $1,937 in February of this year.
Price levels have risen steadily since, growing by nearly 4 percent. But if price patterns hold, it could be a positive signal for renters that the market is stabilizing and normal trends that peak in the summer, dip through the fall and winter, and begin rising again in the spring, have returned.
In the longer term, rents remain elevated. Over the last two years, rent has risen 9.29 percent or $171. Three-year changes equal 19.56 percent. Annualized growth over each of those periods is above historic norms at 4.65 and 6.52 percent, respectively. Over the course of the pandemic, prices have risen nearly 22.5 percent, adding $368 to monthly rent bills.
Let's see where rent prices stand today.
National rent price trends
Price growth continues to be held down by below-normal demand, increased inventory and comparisons to historically high prices at this time last year. Rents grew by 0.40 percent on a yearly basis in September to $2,011. It was the sixth month in a row that price change came in below 1 percent including both May and August which registered negative yearly rent growth.
Monthly prices declined by more than 2 percent. It was the first month-over-month decline since April of this year, and the largest price drop from the previous month since September 2022. Prices have been steadily rising since bottoming out in February. Since then, prices have grown by $74, or 3.82 percent.
Regionally, the Midwest continued to lead price hikes with nearly 5 percent growth over this time last year. Rents in the region, however, remain relatively affordable at $1,435, nearly $200 less than rents in the South and close to $1,000 less than rents in both the Northeast and West. The Northeast also saw rent growth over the last year rising by just over 3 percent annually.
Rents slid in the West as has been the case for several months, dropping 1.61 percent from September 2022. The South also saw yearly rent declines, albeit lower, at nearly one-third of 1 percent.
State rent price trends
State rents largely remain up year over year, maintaining the nearly 60/40 split in up versus down markets that has been the trend throughout most of 2023. For September, 62.79 percent of markets registered yearly price increases compared to 37.21 percent of markets that saw price declines over the same period.
On a monthly basis, however, the split has flipped. Less than a third of markets saw price increases month over month while 67.44 percent of state-level markets recorded price drops from August to September.
Monthly declines were led by Florida, where prices dropped more than 3 percent compared to August. Several high-cost states including California, New York and Massachusetts saw declines above 2 percent. They were joined by Idaho, Arkansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma where rents dropped by a similar proportion.
Year over year, price increases continued in the Midwest, with seven of the 10 largest gainers coming from the region. Iowa saw the largest yearly increase in the Midwest with a more than 12 percent price jump.
Both Dakotas were also represented with increases of 11.32 in South Dakota despite a nearly 2 percent drop month over month, while North Dakota rents increased by more than 9.5 percent compared to this time last year. Kansas, Wisconsin and Illinois also showed strong yearly growth with increases between 6.5 and 9 percent, with Illinois the only state among those with monthly changes above 1.5 percent.
Mississippi, the only Southern state on the list, saw the largest year-over-year gains with prices surging nearly 16 percent, although monthly price changes were relatively flat increasing by just 0.06 percent from August. In the Northeast, New York rents rose 11.28 percent year over year despite price declines relative to August of more than 2 percent, while New Hampshire remained flat month over month but gained 7.38 percent year over year.
Steep declines continued in the West, led by Montana where prices dropped nearly 15.5 percent on a yearly basis. It was joined by both Pacific Northwest states in Washington and Oregon which saw the third and fourth-highest yearly declines in September. Mountain West states also continued their downward trend. Idaho, Nevada and Utah each declined between 5 and 8 percent. Idaho also saw steep monthly declines with prices dropping by nearly 3 percent compared to August.
Oklahoma led Southern states in yearly declines, helped along by a nearly 2.5 percent decline in monthly prices. Florida and Virginia also saw declines of nearly 5.5 and 3 percent year over year, respectively. Both also saw steep monthly declines including a 3.35 percent drop in Florida and a 1.29 percent decrease in Virginia. Pennsylvania was the only Northeastern state among the largest decliners with a 4.5 percent price reduction year over year.
Metro rent price trends
Metro prices are reflective of state and regional trends with the largest rent growth coming from the Midwest while prices declined across the South and West.
The Columbus, OH, metro saw the largest price hikes in September, climbing 14.23 percent to $1,780 even after a nearly 1.5 percent decline month over month. It was joined by Midwestern metros Kansas City and St. Louis, which each registered increases above 8 percent but remained affordable relative to the national median with price levels below $1,700.
The only other metro among the largest yearly gainers with rents below $1,700 was Buffalo, NY, at $1,669. Prices there jumped 11 percent year over year and a jumped by 3 percent from August to September. Slightly further south, the New York City metro — which consistently ranks as the most expensive metro in the nation — gained more than 6.5 percent year over year bringing the median price to nearly $4,450. Further afield across the Northeast, the Providence, RI, metro saw yearly gains of nearly 14 percent, while the Hartford, CT, metro grew by 7.37 percent to nearly $2,230.
Southern metros including Birmingham, AL, and Jacksonville, FL, also saw price hikes above 8 percent. Bucking regional trends, the Phoenix metro saw prices jump by 7.23 percent year over year.
In the negative year over year were several Western locales, including Portland, OR, and the Las Vegas metro, which declined by roughly 12 percent. These metros were joined by the Sacramento, CA, metro which dropped 7 percent to $2,580, and Salt Lake City, where price declined by 5.65 percent.
The biggest decline was in Austin, TX. Rents there fell by more than 14 percent year over year helped along by a monthly change near -5.50 percent. Oklahoma City, New Orleans and Dallas metros also saw significant yearly decreases ranging from just over 4 percent to nearly 9. The Louisville, KY, metro also declined by nearly 5 percent along with a 2.63 percent drop since August that brought prices to $1,343.
About this report
Our October 2023 Rent Report highlights year-over-year rent trends and price fluctuations that renters may experience in various parts of the United States. We compare rent prices across bedroom types to determine which of the country's most populated metros are becoming more affordable or more expensive for renters. States and metros with insufficient inventory are excluded from this report.
Methodology
Rent. analyzed rental property prices in September 2023, the last full month of data, from Rent.'s available inventory to identify our median rent prices at the national, state and metro levels. Our analysis combines inventory and bedroom types into one simple median that covers all available rental units at the time.
The top 50 metropolitan areas in our analysis are determined by U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for 2021.
More detailed information about our methodology can be found here.
The rent information included in this article is used for illustrative purposes only. The data contained herein do not constitute financial advice or a pricing guarantee for any apartment. The information contained in this article is for educational purposes only and does not, and is not intended to, constitute legal or financial advice. Readers are encouraged to seek professional legal or financial advice as they may deem it necessary.
Disclaimer
The information contained in South Florida Reporter is for general information purposes only.
The South Florida Reporter assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the contents of the Service.
In no event shall the South Florida Reporter be liable for any special, direct, indirect, consequential, or incidental damages or any damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tort, arising out of or in connection with the use of the Service or the contents of the Service. The Company reserves the right to make additions, deletions, or modifications to the contents of the Service at any time without prior notice.
The Company does not warrant that the Service is free of viruses or other harmful components
