A poll of 500 Florida Hispanic voters reveals that while there is dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s performance in office, it’s not translating into support for Democratic Party candidates in the two marquee races on the statewide ballot this fall.
The survey comes from UnidosUS and was conducted jointly by the Democratic-leaning polling firm BSP Research and Shaw & Co. Research, a Republican polling firm.
It suggests that 51% of Hispanic voters in Florida disapprove of Trump’s performance in office, while 41% approve. It also finds that 72% of Hispanic voters in Florida are concerned that Congress is not exercising its checks-and-balances role but is giving too much authority to the executive branch. That includes 64% of Cuban Americans in Florida.
The survey also finds that 20% of Hispanics in Florida who voted for Trump in 2024 would not repeat their vote. Only 5% of Hispanic Florida voters who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 say they would not vote for her again if she were on the ballot. Trump defeated Harris 56%-43% in Florida in November 2024.
Republicans lead in races for governor and senator
Regarding the gubernatorial race, the survey of Florida Hispanic voters shows that GOP U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly, 40%-33%, with 27% undecided. In a one-on-one matchup with the other major Democratic candidate, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, Donalds’ lead is five points, 39%-34%, with 27% undecided.
In the U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Ashley Moody leads Democrat Alex Vindman, 40%-33%, with 27% undecided. Against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, Moody leads, 40%-32%, with 28% undecided.
The poll also shows (again) how Florida Hispanic voters differ ideologically from Hispanic voters around the country.
The Florida poll was part of a national survey of 5,000 Hispanic voters conducted by UnidosUS of voters in competitive congressional districts in three other states (California, Arizona, and Texas) and two geographic regions — the Northeast corridor (consisting of districts in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania) and the Southwest (consisting of districts in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado).
Of those states and regions, the only state showing a greater percentage of Latino voters in swing congressional districts supporting a Republican House candidate over a Democrat was Florida, by a 42%-38% margin with 20% undecided. Nationally, Latino voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican House candidate by a 54%-27% margin, with 19% undecided.
However, Daron Shaw, professor of government at the University of Texas and a pollster for Fox News, said during a Zoom conference call Thursday that “these numbers are not good for Republicans.”
His reasoning is that the survey shows a majority of independent Florida Latino voters — 52% — are undecided on whether they would back a Republican or Democratic member of Congress this fall, with 31% saying they would vote Democratic and 17% Republican.
Only 11% of Cuban-American voters are undecided (with the majority, 58%-32%, preferring a Republican) while 23% of Puerto Ricans are undecided (with the majority, 41%-36% saying they would support a Democratic candidate).
“If they go to historical expectations, that means that undecided vote probably leans pretty heavily Democratic right now,” Shaw said.
“The four-point spread [for Republicans] is not what you’re seeing in the Senate or even the governor’s race. It’s much better for the Democrats. If you’re looking at clues with respect to that undecided vote, my expectation is that it’s probably going to lean Democratic.”
Jared Nordlund, Florida state director for UnidosUS, said the high number of NPA (non-party-affiliated) voters in Florida who say they are undecided about for whom to vote for Congress this fall should focus the candidates on winning over the independent voting population.
Strong support for legalizing ‘long-residing’ undocumented immigrants
The survey shows that, however you label it, there is strong support among Florida Hispanic voters for the process of legalizing “long-residing” undocumented immigrants.
When asked whether they support or oppose “an amnesty period” for undocumented immigrants who have lived in the United States for many years and otherwise follow the law, 74% support that proposal, with just 16% against.
That number goes higher, though, when the question is rephrased to ask whether an individual supports or opposes “a program” for undocumented immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for many years and otherwise follow the law. That proposal gets 86% support, with just 8% opposed. That includes 76% of Republicans who support that proposal.
A group of Florida sheriffs in March supported having Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detain and deport only undocumented immigrants with criminal pasts.
Gov. Ron DeSantis is starkly against that.
“This idea that unless you’re an axe murderer you should be allowed to stay, that is not consistent with our laws, and it’s also not good policy,” DeSantis said during a press conference earlier this year. “To send [Trump] a letter asking him to go back on his campaign policies, I would not advise that to be done.”
One of the biggest advocates for immigration reform in the U.S. Congress is South Florida Republican U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar.
Her Dignity Act, originally introduced last summer, calls for undocumented immigrants who have been in the country since before 2021 and lack criminal records would be eligible to pay $7,000 in restitution and any back taxes owed and secure legal status. That would not provide them with a path to citizenship, however. The measure would include funding to boost border security and technology, plus require use of E-Verify to check immigration status.
The measure has 39 co-sponsors from both parties, including Florida Republicans Neal Dunn and Mario Diaz-Ballart.
However, it appears to have little to no chance of advancement in the GOP-controlled House, as it has received a flood of criticism from fellow Republicans as constituting “amnesty” — a label Salazar strongly rejects.
Support for military intervention in Cuba
The poll also asked Florida Hispanic voters their thoughts about the war in Iran and the possibility of military intervention in Cuba.
On Iran, 50% of those surveyed said that they opposed the military intervention in Iran, with 38% in support and 12% undecided.
That’s not the case about possible military intervention in Cuba, a prospect that has been raised in recent months by Trump.
All told, 44% of Florida Hispanics would support such an endeavor, with 39% opposing and 16% unsure. When Cuban Americans were asked the question, 68% said they supported military action, with just 24% opposing.
The survey was conducted between April 27 and May 14, and has a margin of error of +/ 4.4 percentage points.
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