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Inflation Has Created A Dark Cloud Over How Everyday Americans View The Economy

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When Kyle Connolly looks back at 2023, she sees it as a year defined by changes and challenges.

The newly single parent reentered the workforce, only to be laid off from her job at a custom home-building company in November. At the same time, Connolly has seen prices climb for everything from her Aldi’s grocery basket to her condo’s utility costs.

In turn, she’s cut back on everyday luxuries like eating out or going to the movies. Christmas will look pared down for her three kids compared to years prior.

“I’ve trimmed everything that I possibly can,” said the 41-year-old. “It sucks having to tell my kids no. It sucks when they ask for a little something extra when we’re checking out at the grocery store and having to tell them, ‘No, I’m sorry, we can’t.’”

Economic woes have seemed more apparent within her community in Florida’s panhandle. Connolly has noticed fewer 2022 Chevy Suburbans on the road, replaced by older Toyota Camry models. The waters typically filled with boats have been eerily quiet as owners either sold them or tried to cut back on gas costs. Fellow parents have taken to Facebook groups to discuss ways to better conserve money or rake in extra income.

The struggles among Connolly and her neighbors highlight a key conundrum puzzling economists: Why does the average American feel so bad about an economy that’s otherwise considered strong?

‘High prices really hurt’

By many accounts, it has been a good year on this front. The annualized rate of price growth is sliding closer to a level preferred by the Federal Reserve, while the labor market has remained hot. There’s rising hope that monetary policymakers have successfully cooled inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.

Yet closely watched survey data from the University of Michigan shows consumer sentiment, while improving, is a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. December’s index reading showed sentiment improved by almost 17% from a year prior, but was still nearly 30% off from where it sat during the same month in 2019.

“The main issue is that high prices really hurt,” said Joanne Hsu, Michigan’s director of consumer surveys. “Americans are still trying to come to grips with the idea that we’re not going back to the extended period of low inflation, low interest rates that we had in the 2010s. And that reality is not the current reality.”

Still, Hsu sees reason for optimism when zooming in. Sentiment has largely improved from its all-time low seen in June 2022 — the same month the consumer price index rose 9.1% from a year earlier — as people started noticing inflationary pressures recede, she said.

One notable caveat was the drop in sentiment this past May, which she tied to the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. The 2024 presidential election has added to feelings of economic uncertainty for some, Hsu said.

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This article originally appeared here and was republished with permission.