Patients, doctors and investors will soon learn a lot more about a new, more convenient treatment that could shake up the booming weight loss drug market.
Eli Lilly plans to release initial results from several late-stage clinical trials on its experimental once-daily obesity pill, orforglipron, this year. The company has said it expects to unveil data from five studies in patients with Type 2 diabetes and two trials in people with obesity in 2025.
Analysts expect the pill to be as effective, safe and tolerable to take as Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide – the active ingredient in its popular but costly weight loss injection Wegovy and diabetes drug Ozempic. The trial results are among the pharmaceutical industry’s most critical and closely watched of the year, as they bring Eli Lilly’s drug one step closer to becoming a new, needle-free alternative for weight loss and diabetes.
“This could join a growing toolbox of medications for obesity, and it could be a game-changer,” said Dr. Eduardo Grunvald, medical director for UC San Diego’s Center for Advanced Weight Management.
If it enters the market, orforglipron could help more patients access the treatments and alleviate the supply shortfalls of the injections on the market. The pill could also help Eli Lilly solidify its dominance in the growing segment as a slate of other drugmakers race to bring a product to the market.
Offering the first oral version of a so-called GLP-1 could help Eli Lilly capture an even greater share of the market for that popular class of weight loss and diabetes drugs. Eli Lilly is currently about three years ahead of other drugmakers developing pills, including Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Roche, Structure Therapeutics and Viking Therapeutics, Guggenheim analyst Seamus Fernandez told CNBC.
Some analysts expect the market for GLP-1s to be worth more than $150 billion annually by the early 2030s. Oral GLP-1s could grow to be worth $50 billion of that total, Fernandez said.
In a statement, Eli Lilly said it is “investigating orforglipron for the potential to bring a safe and effective treatment to people with these diseases who are looking for a convenient, oral option.”
Eli Lilly’s pill works in a similar way to Wegovy, Ozempic, and Novo Nordisk’s diabetes pill Rybelsus, targeting a gut hormone called GLP-1 to suppress a person’s appetite and regulate blood sugar.
But unlike those three medications, Eli Lilly’s pill is not a peptide medication. That means it is absorbed more easily in the body and doesn’t require dietary restrictions like Rybelsus does.
It is unclear whether orforglipron will have a hefty list price similar to those of the injections, which cost roughly $1,000 per month, or whether it will help expand insurance coverage for obesity treatments. Medicare and many employer-based plans still don’t cover those drugs. But so-called small molecule pills will at least be easier for Eli Lilly to manufacture than injections.
In January, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said the pill could receive U.S. regulatory approval as soon as early 2026. The company also said in its annual report in February it recorded a nearly $550 million “pre-launch inventory” charge for oforglipron, meaning it is preparing to manufacture the drug even before its approval.
“That’s a good indicator that they are comfortable with what they’re seeing across the trials,” BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman told CNBC.
Eli Lilly has benefitted from the windfall from tirzepatide – the active ingredient in its weight loss injection Zepbound and diabetes shot Mounjaro – which targets GLP-1 but also activates another gut hormone called GIP.
Fueled by those treatments, Eli Lilly has become the largest global pharmaceutical and health-care company by market cap, with a market value of about $814 billion as of Monday. The company raked in more than $45 billion in revenue in 2024 alone, a significant share of which came from its portfolio of diabetes and obesity products.
Who could benefit from the pill
While injections will likely remain a popular option, a once-daily pill like Eli Lilly’s could be much easier for some patients to take and store.
“What we’re going to see over the next couple of years is that we’re moving away from one-size-fits-all products to more customized products that are more directly aligned to the profile of the patient,” Seigerman said.
Patients can inject Zepbound and Wegovy under their skin with a click of a button, but must follow specific instructions, such as storing the shots at certain temperatures and injecting in a different spot each week. Meanwhile, Rybelsus must be taken in the morning on an empty stomach with no more than four ounces of plain water.
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