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Who Might Succeed Pope Francis?

By Marcus Walker

ROME—The last time the Catholic Church’s cardinals picked a pope, they wanted an outsider to overhaul a scandal-plagued Vatican. They got more of a disrupter in Pope Francis than many had bargained for.

After Francis’ stormy 12-year pontificate, some cardinals now say they want a successor who can steady the ship and defuse tensions between progressives and conservatives over divorce, same-sex relationships, priestly celibacy and other contentious issues.

“Many cardinals are tired of the roller coaster that has been this pontificate. Many of them will look for some stability,” said Massimo Faggioli, a church historian at Villanova University.

Francis appointed 108 of the 135 cardinals who can vote, so it is unlikely a majority will repudiate his efforts to bring the church closer to ordinary believers, especially the poor and marginalized, by emphasizing its pastoral role over doctrinaire finger-wagging.

Faith Based Events

Only a small number of traditionalist cardinals want to return to a papacy that enforces a universal orthodoxy on sexual morality and gender issues, in the manner of Francis’ predecessor Benedict XVI.

But a larger minority of moderate conservatives could block contenders they view as too radical on questions such as women’s ordination, priestly celibacy and blessings for same-sex couples.

Region breakdown of voting-eligible cardinals, by pope

Note: Omits Pope John Paul I (Aug. 1978 – Sept. 1978)

Source: The Vatican
Taylor Umlauf, Andrew Barnett and Brian McGill/WSJ

An ideologically moderate cardinal with the diplomatic finesse to bridge the church’s divisions, while maintaining Francis’ pastoral focus, might have good prospects.

Many cardinals would prefer a pope with enough charisma to continue Francis’ outreach to the world beyond the Catholic Church, including developing relations with other faiths and maintaining a voice on political and economic issues, such as wars, migration and climate change.

Yet the ideal candidate needs technocratic skills to fix the Vatican’s chronic and growing budget deficit, an area where Francis struggled.

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