By , AccuWeather senior meteorologist
A new round of downpours is forecast to drench the southeastern United States starting this weekend, with a chance that a tropical rainstorm, depression or storm could form over the northeastern Gulf or over Atlantic waters off of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
The tropical threat is being preceded by showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast that will persist into midweek.
Changes in the weather pattern will cause the heat dome to the north to weaken and begin to break down late this week into the weekend.
At the same time, a dip in the jet stream is forecast to develop over the Southeast this weekend, making it easier for heavy, gusty thunderstorms to develop. A light flow of moisture from the Gulf and nearby Atlantic will fuel thunderstorms capable of producing locally excessive rainfall and dangerous flash flooding, while also bringing drought relief.
Another piece of the evolving pattern could be the development of a low-pressure area near or just off the northeastern Gulf Coast or the southern Atlantic Coast. If it becomes better organized and acquires tropical characteristics, it could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm.
The next tropical storm that forms would be named Bertha. Arthur became the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season when it briefly strengthened along the Texas coast in mid-June.
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“So far, we believe the chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in this area is low, but probably represents the best chance for tropical development throughout the Atlantic basin prior to the end of July,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
An already well-established El Niño, associated with warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, can have a profound impact on tropical activity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins, as well as weather patterns around the globe.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is its full name, is part of a routine cycle of warm, average and cool waters in the tropical Pacific.
A very strong, potentially record-strong El Niño is forecast this autumn, which should lead to fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, compared to the historical average. A strong El Niño tends to increase episodes of disruptive wind shear over the prime development regions of the Atlantic during the heart of the hurricane season (late-August to October).
“The quick formation of El Niño and its likelihood to be very strong has prompted us to lower the number of tropical storms slightly to 8-14 from our original prediction of 11-16 in March,” DaSilva said. “On average, there are 14 named storms, which include tropical storms and hurricanes.”
“However, we are maintaining our original forecast of four to seven hurricanes and most importantly three to five direct impacts on the U.S. this season,” DaSilva said.
Arthur was the first storm to affect the U.S. this season, causing only minor damage. However, it is believed to be responsible for taking four lives due to flash flooding, one in Mexico and three in the U.S.
Even during a relatively quiet season, it only takes one powerful hurricane or moisture-laden tropical storm to leave a lasting mark on communities in its path.
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to identify the northeastern Gulf as one of the Atlantic basin’s areas most vulnerable to rapid tropical development and short-notice hazards this season.
Eastern Pacific tropical activity ramping up
As El Niño continues to strengthen, the Pacific is forecast to have a bumper crop of tropical storms and hurricanes. Thus far, there have been five tropical storms, including the latest, Elida. A sixth tropical storm is forecast to develop soon and would be named Fausto. Both Elida and Fausto are likely to become the first two hurricanes of the season in the North American waters.
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