Former President Donald Trump is running on his economic record from his four years in office. Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t at the helm at the White House, but President Biden’s record is, in effect, hers.
Americans have consistently given Trump better marks on the economy than Biden—to the frustration of Biden’s advisers, who complain the president hasn’t gotten the credit he deserves. While recent polls suggest Harris is making up ground on the economy, she still trails.
So just what does the data show on how Trump and Biden performed?
Comparing exactly how the economy has done during the Biden administration versus the Trump administration is less than straightforward. The pandemic severely disrupted the country during Trump’s last year in office and into the Biden years. Both men might like a pass or two on some aspects of how things fared under their watch. Some caveats probably are in order, and the president’s ability to influence something as large and complex as the U.S. economy is often limited. That said, both were in charge, and their economic records are their economic records.
Biden vs. Trump on GDP
Gross domestic product is the broadest measure of the economy’s performance, and during Trump’s first three years in office, it was pretty good: Inflation-adjusted, or real, GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2019. Then the pandemic hit and GDP got whacked, bringing the annual rate for his whole term to 1.8%.
GDP under Biden has been better. This is in part because it was still rebounding strongly during his first year in office. From the end of 2020 through the second quarter of this year, real GDP has grown at a 3.2% annual rate. Its level is higher than what economists before the pandemic thought it would be now.
Put another way: GDP grew 7.6% over Trump’s four years in office. It has grown 11.8% so far during Biden’s tenure.
Economists estimate that the third-quarter GDP report, due from the Commerce Department at the end of October, will also be solid. At this point, it looks as if GDP under Biden will post the strongest growth of a presidential term since former President Bill Clinton’s final four years in office.
Biden vs. Trump on inflation
While GDP growth has been good under Biden, inflation has been absolutely horrible.
During Trump’s first three years in office, inflation was muted. And when the pandemic first hit, it ran even colder. From January 2017 to January 2021, the Labor Department’s consumer-price index rose a cumulative 7.8%.
Under Biden, prices skyrocketed. And while inflation—the pace at which prices are rising—has lately cooled, Americans are still living with those past price hikes. Through September, consumer prices are nearly 20% above their January 2021 levels.
Not since Ronald Reagan’s first term, when consumer prices rose 21%, has a president presided over such high inflation. And Reagan had the advantage that during the single term of his predecessor, Jimmy Carter, inflation was much hotter, with prices rising 49%.
Disclaimer
The information contained in South Florida Reporter is for general information purposes only.
The South Florida Reporter assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the contents of the Service.
In no event shall the South Florida Reporter be liable for any special, direct, indirect, consequential, or incidental damages or any damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tort, arising out of or in connection with the use of the Service or the contents of the Service. The Company reserves the right to make additions, deletions, or modifications to the contents of the Service at any time without prior notice.
The Company does not warrant that the Service is free of viruses or other harmful components
