As the holiday season approaches, retail buyers are navigating a shifting landscape of tariffs introduced during the Trump administration that are reshaping how goods are sourced, scheduled and stocked. According to Retail Dive, many retailers now find themselves juggling unpredictable import costs and compressed buying windows that make traditional planning nearly impossible.
“This time, it’s very unexpected … and that puts most of the firms in a very responsive mode,” said Young Hou, assistant professor of business administration at the Darden School of Business, noting that retailers once able to influence regulation are now reacting instead. One buyer described the situation as “sort of like the roulette wheel … ‘No more bets.’”
Retailers typically build holiday orders well in advance, offering vendors a clear roadmap. But this year, many say they placed over half of their holiday orders by the end of May — almost two months earlier than in a past survey. The reason: concerns around supplier reliability and geopolitical tensions, with 76 % of surveyed retail buyers citing those factors as key worries.
Major chains such as Best Buy have already shifted sourcing away from China, reducing its share of product costs from 55 % in March to 30–35 % by May. Smaller retailers, however, appear far less equipped to pivot. With over 97 % of U.S. import companies defined as small businesses, tariffs are now among their top challenges, second only to inflation.
Experts believe the forced rethinking of supply-chain models may accelerate consolidation in the industry. “We’re going to see the larger firms … come out on top,” Hou predicted. For retailers, the message is clear: build flexibility into sourcing, rethink lead times and brace for the holiday rush unlike any other.
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