Sunburn — The Morning Read Of What’s Hot In Florida Politics — 6.30.22

By Peter Schorsch   

Good Thursday morning.

Welcome to the world — Hudson James Heffley arrived last night at 8:01 p.m. to parents Brooke and Drew Heffley (who works for Jim Rimes‘ 30/30). At 8 lbs. 1 oz., Hudson is beautiful and doing great, as is mom, dad and big sister Hayes. “Our hearts have never been so full!” Drew said.

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Following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, Michelle and I had an in-depth conversation with Sen. Janet Cruz about the wide-ranging impact of the decision in the latest edition of He Said, She Said. We also discuss Cruz’s successes during the 2022 Legislative Session and her re-election campaign in one of Florida’s battleground districts.

Click here to listen.

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According to an internal poll from Charlie Crist’s campaign, the Aug. 23 Democratic Primary will be less competitive than FSU football’s season opener against the Duquesne Dukes four days later.

The poll from GBAO Strategies shows 55% of likely Primary voters prefer the Democratic Congressman and former Republican Governor, while 34% plan to vote for Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.

Crist’s three-touchdown lead is well outside the pollster’s 4% margin of error. It also shows Crist winning more than a majority of the votes, leaving Fried with no path to victory even if she shuts him out among the 11% of Democrats who remain undecided.

Team Fried said the poll was “delusional” and pointed to its own internal poll, released last week, which showed her earning the same 34% share of the vote compared to 38% for Crist.

Though her measure exposed a potential game plan to overtake Crist — namely, raising her name ID and skewering Crist for his past political positions — her campaign and political committee accounts have less in the tank than Duquesne’s booster fund.

With mail ballots shipping out in a few weeks, the campaign also has a month less to prepare.

The new poll shows no wobble, either. Crist’s 20-point-plus lead carries across women, men, liberals, moderates and conservatives. Self-described highly motivated voters are also backing him 58%-34%. In a cruel twist, Fried fares best among lackadaisical voters. And even among them, she trails by nine points.

While Crist appears to have Fried outgunned in every respect, whether the same squad can win a night game in Death Valley is a question for another poll.

—“Fried challenges Crist’s abortion rights stance, but he maintains lead in Democratic primary” via John Kennedy of USA Today-Florida

Assignment editors — Crist will hold a news conference on protecting reproductive freedom in Florida ahead of-the-new-15week abortion ban law set to go into effect, 9:15 a.m., livestreamed on Crist’s Facebook page (@CharlieCrist). RSVP at press@charliecrist.com.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@vtg2: How is 2022 already halfway through???

Tweet, tweet:

—@mjs_DC: It seems the next wave of anti-abortion legislation will focus on gagging reproductive rights advocates by subjecting them to felony charges when they “give information to a pregnant woman … regarding self-administered abortions or the means to obtain an illegal abortion.”

—@AGAshleyMoody: Pleased the FSC granted the Gov’s petition to impanel a statewide grand jury. I look forward to our Statewide Prosecutor working w/jurors to investigate matters related to human smuggling, trafficking & the unlawful release of criminals here illegally.

—@SenMannyDiazJr: Today @MiamiHerald published a critique of slides that accompany our civics training without rebutting a single fact listed on any of them. The Herald is attacking Florida civics education because they would prefer it to be a vehicle to push their partisan ideology on students.

Tweet, tweet:

—@GeorgeHahn: Rough couple of days for sex traffickers. Matt Gaetz next?

Tweet, tweet: