Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 12.2.22

 Good Friday morning.

The challenge of affordable housing — and the lack of obvious solutions — hung over a number of panel discussions at Florida TaxWatch’s annual meeting.

In the wake of a hurricane and in the face of an insurance crisis, one thing most agreed on is that the problem is an urgent one.

Sen. Ana Maria Rodriguez, a Miami-Dade Republican, expects multiple issues surrounding the cost of living to loom during a Special Session on insurance and in the coming Regular Session.

“This Session is not just going to be an insurance crisis and figuring out ways to mitigate the skyrocketing costs and these increases,” she said.

Following Hurricane Ian, Rodriguez expects legislation to cut property taxes for homes destroyed by the storm. Of course, that’s just one small piece of the challenges around the supply of housing for working-class Floridians.

She took part in a panel at the Florida TaxWatch meeting alongside Centerline Capital Partners founder Craig Perry, a developer with projects in Florida and other states. He said the crisis of costs was part of a national supply-and-demand problem.

He pointed to local, state and federal regulations that create problems for builders, from a lack of timeline on zoning applications to land development regulations that, in fact, reduce the practical building level allowed by zoning alone.

But both he and Rodrigues said one of the biggest problems is “NIMBYism,” a widely felt anxiety that affordable housing could reduce the value of homes in the immediate vicinity.

“You’re trying to make things as affordable as possible, but nobody wants it in your backyard — until it’s their own kid,” Perry said.

“George LeMieux predicts growth will make Florida an economic powerhouse — and a Republican one” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Former U.S. Sen. LeMieux says Florida will grow faster and redder than the rest of the country in short order. Central Florida will be home to 20 million people within two decades. Miami will be a financial capital with its own stock exchange. And Republicans will win elections more consistently. “If we are purple, we are a reddish-purple,” he said. LeMieux presented his assessments at the annual meeting of Florida TaxWatch, held this year in Coral Gables.

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Here are other items on my radar:

— 2023 Tampa City Council races are the next hot ticket in Florida politics: All Tampa City Council districts are up for election this year and of those, five have at least three candidates running so far. This year’s municipal cycle could be an interesting one given several headline-making issues this year. A public records lawsuit. A sexual harassment scandal. A red wave that could challenge convention. Read my exhaustive rundown of what to expect in next year’s City Council contests here.

— Education wars rage loudest in swingy areas: UC Riverside research finds political conflict in education settings is most profound in areas that are politically diverse. Those areas are more likely to drop programs that train teachers to have productive conversations about controversial issues, according to an analysis from Washington Post reporter Laura Heckler. The research stems from a survey of 682 public high school principals, in which more than two-thirds reported parents or other members of their school communities seeking limits on teaching on race or challenging policies related to LGBTQ student rights, access to books, or to social-emotional learning. Read more here.

— Black turnout in Midterms was one of the low points for Democrats: Despite good news — or at least news that felt good — for Democrats this election cycle, from holding the Senate to remaining stubbornly competitive, it’s clear Black turnout is not one of those feel-good stories for the party. In states like Georgia and North Carolina, where authoritative data is already available, Black turnout sank to its lowest point since 2006, according to a New York Times analysis. Other states are showing similar signs so far. Relatively low Black turnout is becoming an unmistakable trend in the post-Obama era, raising important — if yet unanswered — questions about how Democrats can revitalize the enthusiasm of their strongest group of supporters. Read more here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@AdamKinzinger: The fact that the former President had dinner with a guy that was SO Nazi, that he disavowed knowing him by saying the dinner was supposed to be with a guy who just said Hitler is dope, is definitely something unimaginable on alternate sane Earth.

—@Bencjacobs: Kanye West: “The Jewish media has made us feel like the Nazis and Hitler have never offered anything of value to the world.”

Tweet, tweet:

There have been three polls since his Kanye dinner that measure Trump against the entire GOP field and he is leading in all three of them pic.twitter.com/zPUZOAoKtX

— David Freedlander (@freedlander) December 1, 2022

—@janecoaston: There must be an inverse relationship between “people who can win the White House” and “people who believe they can win the White House”

Tweet, tweet:

Truth! You’re about to see the legislature do things that were unfathomable two years ago. Why, things are that bad. For example, Citizens could be 30% of the FL homeowners market by mid 2024. https://t.co/ijuBxfEMFF

— Jeff Brandes (@JeffreyBrandes) December 1, 2022

—@alifarhat79: Sam Bankman-Fried: I don’t know where $10 billion went. The Pentagon: We don’t know where $2.2 trillion went. The IRS: You just sent $601.37, don’t forget to report it.

Tweet, tweet:

The Rays won’t be returning to Port Charlotte in 2023 for Spring Training because of damage to Charlotte Sports Park caused by Hurricane Ian. pic.twitter.com/edTFUvFwBK

— Kyle Burger (@kyle_burger) December 2, 2022

—@kyle_burger: A source confirms that Deion Sanders has visited the USF facilities this week and a major sticking point for him accepting the head coach position is to have a major say in the construction of the new on-campus stadium.

— DAYS UNTIL —

2022 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 3; Georgia U.S. Senate runoff — 4; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 4; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 14; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 30; The James Madison Institute’s Annual Dinner — 54; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 61; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 77; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 78; city of Tampa Municipal Election early voting begins — 87; Tampa Municipal Election — 95; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 95; World Baseball Classic finals begin in Miami — 99; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 112; Taylor Swift ‘Eras’ Tour in Tampa — 132; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 147; 2023 Session Sine Die — 154; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 154; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 182; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 231; ‘‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 238; Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 336; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 483; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 539; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 602; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 602; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 644; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 707; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 805; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 882. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,071.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

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