Sunburn — The Morning Read Of What’s Hot In Florida Politics — 10.13.21

By Peter Schorsch

Good Wednesday morning.

Hot off embargo — Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings raised $8.4 million for her Senate campaign last quarter, smashing the record for what past Senate candidates had raised at this point in a campaign cycle.

The new report follows up on the $4.6 million raised by the Central Florida lawmaker in the second quarter when she was a candidate for just a month. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, the incumbent Republican Demings is challenging, reported $4 million that quarter and has yet to announce his Q3 numbers.

Demings’ campaign said it has spent millions on digital infrastructure, which it expects “will pay dividends down the road.” It enters the final three months of the year with about $6 million in the bank.

“This will be the strongest campaign in Florida’s history — a campaign that goes everywhere and cedes no ground,” campaign manager Zach Carroll wrote in a campaign memo. “We are reaching out to voters of all political stripes — Democrats, Republicans, and independents — who know that Marco Rubio is failing to look out for them in Washington.”

The campaign also pointed to a recent St. Pete Polls survey polling that shows Rubio is beatable in 2022. In August, that poll showed the incumbent leading Demings 48%-46%, which was within the margin of error.

“Floridians know that Rubio is a slick, spineless, and pandering politician who looks out for himself and corporate special interests, leaving everyday Floridians behind. Rubio isn’t strong enough to stand up for working Floridians anymore; he’s just in it for himself even when it hurts Florida. With this profile, Rubio will struggle to motivate the same voters who showed up for other Republicans in recent elections,” Carroll wrote.

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Among Florida Republicans, Gov. Ron DeSantis has a higher favorability rating than Donald Trump, but that doesn’t mean they’d vote for him if he ran against the former President in 2024.

According to a Victory Insights poll, 55% of Florida voters have a favorable opinion of DeSantis, including 42% who said they found the first-term Governor “very favorable.” With non-GOP voters excluded, that figure jumps to 83%.

Meanwhile, 53% of voters told the pollster they had a favorable view of Trump, yet his supporters aren’t as fervent — just 35% find him “very favorable.” Among his Republican fans, the intensity jumps to 78%, putting him five points behind the Governor he helped get elected.

Victory Insights also measured voter derision, finding DeSantis had fewer haters than the ex-President and, in a flip from the favorability ratings, those who dislike DeSantis do so less intensely. Overall, 44% of those polled said they disliked the Governor, with 35% saying they found him “very unfavorable” Trump scored 46% and 39%, respectively.

One would assume the better-liked, less-hated candidate would lead the pack in 2024, but that’s not the case. The same poll found 58% of Florida Republicans would vote for Trump if he’s listed on the Primary ballot three years from now. Just 30% picked DeSantis, with the balance preferring someone else.

Still, the pollster found DeSantis would give Republicans the best odds to pick up Florida’s 30 electoral votes next cycle. As it stands, Trump would lose to either President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. While the early poll shows DeSantis would lose to Biden if he’s the nominee, it gives him a one-point edge over Harris.

The poll was conducted Sept. 16-18, with a sample size of 450 Florida voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@BenjySarlin: For all the noise, we’re quietly climbing toward 80% of adults vaccinated, and that’s before new rounds of mandates kick in. The first big freakout over vaccine resistance was when U.S. failed to hit 70% by July 4.

Tweet, tweet:

—@RepMaxineWaters: I have been hacked, and my Twitter account has been erased. I know who has done this. I will take care of this. M Waters.

—@JoshTPM: Perhaps we could have a negotiated settlement where there’s Indigenous Peoples Day and also Fermi Day since he was actually Italian and did cool stuff, and it was never actually about what Columbus did in the first place.

—@DavidsonHiers: Really fascinated by being charged for physical copies of public records that can … be … provided … digitally

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