Good Monday morning. Here are some items which caught my attention over the weekend.
— With one month to go before Election Day: The battle for the U.S. Senate majority is still looking like a nail-biter. As Steven Shepard of POLITICO writes, polling is trending toward another 50-50 tie — a Democratic majority under the current presidential administration — with the most likely flips being Nevada for the GOP and Pennsylvania for Democrats.
— Why Democrats probably won’t hold the House: FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe model gives Republicans about a 70% chance of winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives, despite the generic polling average showing Democrats leading. FiveThirtyEight describes the disparity, noting that not a single “tipping-point” district — those most likely to put either party over a majority — leans Democrat. Eleven are toss-ups, eight lean Republican and 1 is likely Republican. Basically, as the explainer highlights, if Democrats lose any of those seats, the chances of a GOP majority increase significantly, but when the model assumes a Republican loss, Democrats’ chances only increase slightly. Learn more here.
— Twitter isn’t the political echo chamber you think it is: While those of us who contribute to Sunburn and you who read it might spend a not insignificant amount of time chugging through headlines and scouring Twitter, most people don’t. Of the more than 1.4 million Twitter users tracked in a study, only 2.5% followed accounts considered to be run by “political elites.” About 1 in 4 followed at least three. That’s not much. So next time you get wonky in a tweet remember, you may just be preaching to the choir. Read more here.
— Obama’s forgotten manuscript: Long before he became America’s first Black President, Barack Obama laid out an ominous path to rebuilding democracy in a 250-page manuscript written with his friend and former economics professor Robert Fisher entitled “Transformative Politics.” The manuscript, which was never completed or published, was largely critical of the left for “rudderless pragmatism” that, as historian Timothy Shenk describes in a New York Times column, led Democrats to seek victory in the judiciary when they couldn’t win at the polls, a sign that “progressives talked a good game about democracy, but they didn’t really seem to believe in it.” Read more here.
— How Hitler enablers undid democracy in Germany: Germany had its own Big Lie — that it had not been defeated on the battlefield in 1918 and instead that Jews, Marxists, democrats and internationalists had betrayed the country and ushered in an un-German form of democracy. According to an analysis in The Atlantic, Hitler used the conspiracy theory to justify violent action. While former President Donald Trump sues CNN over alleged comparisons to Hitler and Nazi regimes, The Atlantic piece applies an academic case for such comparisons, noting the threat of “legal revolution,” but stopping short of raising fears over a Hitler-like or fascist system of government. Dive into the details here.
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
—@POTUS: We are on track to reduce the deficit by more than $1 trillion this year — and that’s on top of a $350 billion deficit reduction last year. Don’t let anyone tell you we can’t afford to invest in America’s families.
Friday Night Lights in Southwest Florida https://t.co/yPFFOa75hi
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) October 7, 2022
—@weida_jason: Shoutout to all the @AHCA_FL employees, especially the more than 100 surveyors in the field, working every day to keep hospitals and residential providers open for business in the areas impacted by #HurricaneIan. We all see the fruit of your efforts. Proud to serve with you.
—@SpencerRoachFL: The last two days have been tough. Reality hit as my furniture and personal belongings were tossed to the curb like so much garbage. Starting over is hard.
—@PaulFox13: Overheard chitchat multiple times in JetBlue departure area to #. “Tampa Bay is protected from storms.” “Indian burial grounds keeps the Bay safe” “Tampa force field was in full effect.” I wish any of that was true. The correct chitchat is. We got lucky. This time.
—@DaveTrotter101: I believe that the @valdemings and @CharlieCrist campaigns of 2022 will go down as the worst-run General Elections campaigns in the history of #flapol. I’m not saying this as hyperbole, but to be factual.
Thank you @Buccaneers for honoring our hero Deputy Lane today. Your love and support for law enforcement & military is truly wonderful. We appreciate you. ❤️ #9228 #AHeroRememberedNeverDies pic.twitter.com/TYTKLLGi3O
— Polk County Sheriff 🚔 Grady Judd (@PolkCoSheriff) October 9, 2022
Total we celebrated #ColumbusDay by rededicating our statue of Cristiforo Colombo at @PortEverglades with Eva Alvino, the Deputy Consul General of Italy in Miami, our @KnightsofCol and Italian American Clubs of Broward as we’ve done for the past 11 years. #ItalAmerican culture. pic.twitter.com/VP9P1tMuJq
— Chip LaMarca (@ChipLaMarca) October 9, 2022
—@24_Rays: A pitching staff that can win a World Series with a lineup that couldn’t beat the Savannah Bananas
— DAYS UNTIL —
Deadline to register for General Election — 1; ‘Before You Vote’ TV debates (Senate) — 8; NBA season tips off — 8; Taylor Swift’s ‘Midnights’ release — 11; Florida Chamber Annual Meeting & Future of Florida Forum — 14; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘The Passenger’ releases — 15; Jon Meacham’s ‘And There Was Light: Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle’ releases — 15; City & State Florida Digital Summit — 17; Early voting begins for General Election — 19; 2022 General Election — 29; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 32; ‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 32; FITCon 2022 begins — 38; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 38; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 42; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 45; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 54; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 54; McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 57; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 67; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 83; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 114; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 130; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 131; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 148; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 165; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 190; 2023 Session Sine Die — 207; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 207; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 235; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 284; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 389; ‘Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 403; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 536; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 655; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 655; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 760; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 938.
Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.
This article originally appeared here and was republished with permission.