Social Security recipients could see their biggest benefit increase in three years in 2027 as inflation continues to run hot.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is expected to be 3.5% next year, according to a new estimate from Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst.
Meanwhile, the Senior Citizens League, or TSCL, separately projects a 3.5% increase. That’s down slightly from the nonpartisan advocacy group’s previous estimate of 3.6%.
Either projection would put next year’s raise above the 2.8% COLA that roughly 75 million Social Security recipients got in 2026.
The latest projections follow new data released Friday showing inflation held steady in August. Johnson’s latest estimate is up from the 3.4% increase she projected after July’s inflation data.
If the 3.5% projection holds, it would mark the biggest COLA since 2023. That year, benefits increased by a whopping 8.7%.
But the final number isn’t locked in yet. The Social Security Administration calculates the annual COLA using CPI-W data from July, August and September. With two of those three months already released, September’s inflation reading is the final piece needed to determine how much benefits will increase in 2027.
What the latest inflation data means for the 2027 COLA
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in August from the previous month and 3.4% from a year earlier.
Those figures are based on the consumer price index, or CPI, a broad measure of inflation. Annual inflation was unchanged from July, when prices also rose 3.4% year over year.
Energy costs were among the drivers of inflation last month. Gasoline prices jumped 3.9% in August, while energy prices overall rose 2.1%. Compared to a year earlier, energy prices were up 16.3%, with gasoline prices 27.4% higher. AAA said the national average reached $4.27 a gallon on Sept. 10, up 13 cents in one week and more than $1 from a year ago.
While the CPI tends to grab the most headlines, Social Security’s annual COLA is actually calculated using a slightly different measure of inflation: the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, or CPI-W.
The CPI-W reached 328.481 in August, up 3.5% from a year earlier and 0.4% from July, according to the BLS. But the August reading alone doesn’t determine the COLA.
To calculate the adjustment, the Social Security Administration averages the CPI-W readings from July, August and September and compares that figure with the average from the same three months a year earlier.
That means two of the three numbers needed to calculate the 2027 increases are already available. The CPI-W was 327.104 in July and 328.481 in August. September’s reading will provide the final piece of the puzzle.
Johnson and TSCL expect the final COLA to land around 3.5%, although next month’s inflation reading could still push the adjustment higher or lower.
“A lot depends on highly volatile oil prices which are beyond my ability to forecast, so I leave this to others, or the betting markets to sort out for us,” Johnson said in a news release Friday.
How much could Social Security benefits increase in 2027?
If the 3.5% COLA estimate holds, the average Social Security benefit would increase by $67.90 per month, according to TSCL.
TSCL says the current average beneficiary receives $1,940 per month. A 3.5% increase would bring that benefit to about $2,008. For someone receiving $2,000 a month, a 3.5% COLA could mean an additional $70, bringing their monthly benefit to $2,070 before any deductions.
A bigger COLA doesn’t necessarily mean retirees will have more purchasing power. The adjustment is designed to help Social Security benefits keep pace with inflation, rather than give beneficiaries a real increase in what their money can buy.
The bump in Social Security payments could also be smaller for those enrolled in Medicare. Medicare Part B premiums are typically deducted directly from Social Security payments. Earlier this year, the Medicare Trustees projected that the standard Part B premium would rise by $6.60 in 2027, from $202.90 per month to $209.50. The actual 2027 Part B premium has not been announced yet.
There’s still one month of inflation data to go before Social Security recipients know their official raise. The BLS will release September’s CPI report Oct. 14, the same day the SSA is expected to announce the official 2027 COLA.
The new COLA will take effect with Social Security benefits paid in January 2027.
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