Sizing Up the Next Commander-in-Chief; Latest Polls

debate
(Image: thefiscaltimes.com)

You wouldn’t know it from the presidential campaigns, but the first serious crisis to face our new president most likely will be international. The list of possibilities is long—longer than it was eight years ago.

Here is the world the new president will inherit at noon on January 20—a range of challenges for which neither candidate has offered new strategies or paths forward.

Every aspect of our relationship with China is becoming more challenging. In addition to Chinese cyberspying and theft of intellectual property, many American businesses in China are encountering an increasingly hostile environment. China’s nationalist determination unilaterally to assert sovereignty over disputed waters and islands in the East and South China Seas is steadily increasing the risk of military confrontation.

Most worrying, given their historic bad blood, escalation of a confrontation between China and Japan could be very dangerous. As a treaty partner of Japan, we would be obligated to help Tokyo. China intends to challenge the U.S. for regional dominance in East Asia over the long term, but the new president could quickly face a Chinese military challenge over disputed islands and freedom of navigation.
Latest national polls from RealClearPolitics, followed by latest Florida polls: 

National Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 8/26 – 9/16 45.7 44.2 Clinton +1.5
LA Times/USC Tracking 9/10 – 9/16 2565 LV 4.5 41 47 Trump +6
FOX News 9/11 – 9/14 867 LV 3.0 45 46 Trump +1
CBS News/NY Times 9/9 – 9/13 1433 LV 3.0 46 44 Clinton +2
Economist/YouGov 9/10 – 9/13 926 RV 4.0 46 44 Clinton +2
Quinnipiac 9/8 – 9/13 960 LV 3.2 48 43 Clinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos 9/8 – 9/12 1127 LV 3.3 40 39 Clinton +1
NBC News/SM 9/5 – 9/11 16220 RV 1.1 48 44 Clinton +4
ABC News/Wash Post 9/5 – 9/8 642 LV 4.5 51 43 Clinton +8
CNN/ORC 9/1 – 9/4 786 LV 3.5 48 49 Trump +1
IBD/TIPP 8/26 – 9/1 861 LV 3.4 44 43 Clinton +1

All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data

Florida Polling Data

Poll Date Sample MoE
Trump (R)
Clinton (D)
Spread
RCP Average 8/19 – 9/12 45.1 44.4 Trump +0.7
CNN/ORC 9/7 – 9/12 788 LV 3.5 50 46 Trump +4
JMC Analytics* 9/7 – 9/8 781 LV 3.5 46 42 Trump +4
CBS News/YouGov* 9/7 – 9/9 1193 LV 3.5 42 44 Clinton +2
Quinnipiac 8/29 – 9/7 761 LV 3.6 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 9/4 – 9/6 744 LV 3.6 46 47 Clinton +1
Mason-Dixon* 8/22 – 8/24 625 LV 4.0 42 44 Clinton +2
Florida Atlantic University* 8/19 – 8/22 1200 LV 2.7 43 41 Trump +2

All Florida: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data

Opinion by ROBERT M. GATES, Wall Street Journal, excerpt posted on  SouthFloridaReporter.com Sept. 17, 2016 

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here