Potentially Historic El Niño Threatens Florida With Heavy Winter Rain, Severe Storms, and Tornado Risks This Season (Video)

A potentially historic El Niño could bring drastically different winter conditions across the United States, with AccuWeather long-range experts forecasting increased flooding risks across parts of the South and California, heavy mountain snow in the West, and warmer conditions across much of the northern United States.

Very strong El Niño conditions are underway and are expected to continue through early 2027, as repeated southern rain raises river levels and western mountain snow builds a reserve of water for the warmer months.

El Niño, a periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, could peak in December or January. AccuWeather experts say this event could rival or exceed the powerful El Niño events of 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16. However, comparable strength does not guarantee the same regional impacts.

“Past strong El Niño winters offer clues, but this winter will have its own characteristics. Where storms repeatedly travel will determine which communities face flooding and which mountains build valuable snowpack,” said AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Chad Merrill. “Even areas expecting a warmer, less snowy winter need to prepare for potentially disruptive storms.”

Where El Niño Could Have the Biggest Impact This Winter

• Southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic: An active southern storm track could bring frequent rain from the southern Plains through the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic. Flooding concerns could increase across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys as winter progresses, with rivers starting below normal potentially reaching flood levels by spring. Some storms could also produce severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
• Western mountains: More snow than last winter could benefit ski resorts and help replenish rivers and reservoirs as snow melts during spring and summer.
• Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast: Warmer conditions and below-average snowfall are forecast across much of the region. Fewer sustained cold outbreaks could reduce heating demand, but a significant snowstorm remains possible from late January into February.
• California: Repeated atmospheric rivers could increase flooding and landslide risks while delivering heavy Sierra Nevada snow. Strong storms could also produce high winds and coastal flooding. In between storms, coastal flooding looks likely along the California coast due to the already elevated water levels due to the very strong El Niño.

Storm Track Holds the Key

Other Pacific water temperatures and atmospheric patterns could shift the storm track, changing which regions receive the most precipitation. People and businesses should continue to monitor the AccuWeather app for the latest weather conditions and the impact of El Niño.