Tropical Storm Bertha Forms in Gulf

Tropical Storm Bertha has officially formed in the Gulf as the second tropical storm of the season and AccuWeather experts are continuing to monitor two possible tracks the storm could take, each with distinct impacts on the northern Gulf and Texas.

Stronger System Stays South

• A stronger, more organized system would track south, potentially avoiding landfall in Louisiana
• Track brings most intense impacts, including stronger winds and heavier rain to Texas
• Could develop into a hurricane

Less Organized System Moves North

• The tropical storm will likely move into Louisiana and lose tropical characteristics
• Still a risk for flooding rain, but the winds would be less intense, and the likelihood of flooding rain reaching Texas would be lower

“Dry air and hostile wind shear across the Gulf will be the biggest factors in whether this further organizes,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert. “Right now, our forecast expects those conditions to prevent significant strengthening. However, if the storm encounters a temporary reduction in wind shear, it could intensify more rapidly and track farther west toward Texas. The next 24 to 48 hours will be key as to where this storm will move later in the week.”

Due to flooding rainfall, dangerous rip currents and waterspouts, Bertha is a ‘less than 1’ on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States

What AccuWeather Experts are Tracking:

• Heavy rain is already occurring across portions of northern Gulf and western Florida
• AccuWeather experts forecast widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches from southern Florida through the central coast of Texas.
• Some localized areas will receive 4-8 inches, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches through Saturday.
• The west track could bring heavy rainfall into the Texas Hill Country, where recent catastrophic flooding has left the region especially vulnerable to additional flash flooding.
• The primary impacts are expected to be heavy rain, localized flash flooding, travel delays and road closures. Rainfall could also provide beneficial drought relief across parts of the Florida Panhandle and lower Mississippi Valley.
• There will be an increased risk of dangerous rip currents and waterspouts along portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast.

In June, Tropical Storm Arhtur became the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Arthur dumped more than 20-inches of rain in parts of Texas and the Gulf, causing an estimated $4-6 billion in damages, according to estimates by AccuWeather experts.

AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes
In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.