Making bold predictions is practically a pastime in the crypto world, but when someone like Changpeng “CZ” Zhao—founder of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange—throws out a number, people tend to listen. Fresh from navigating his own legal challenges, CZ is looking at the current market cycle and seeing massive potential for Bitcoin, suggesting it could reach astonishing heights between $500,000 and even $1 million.
That kind of forecast sounds almost unbelievable, especially given Bitcoin’s rollercoaster ride lately. But CZ isn’t just pulling numbers out of thin air. He points to some powerful forces already at play—growing institutional adoption fueled by ETFs, increasing government interest in holding Bitcoin, and a significant shift in US policy—as reasons why this cycle might be different, potentially pushing BTC far beyond its previous records.
Bitcoin Is in the Green Again
Looking at the charts, BTC has certainly shown some resilience recently. According to Binance price data as of May 8, Bitcoin is actually up about 6.8% since the start of the year. That might not sound earth-shattering, but it’s worth remembering most of that gain came from a pretty sharp 30% jump just between April 9 and May 8.
Before that late spring recovery, 2025 wasn’t looking so hot for Bitcoin or the wider crypto market. Global economic jitters and trade war fears definitely took their toll. After hitting a new all-time high of $109,114 on January 20 (coinciding with the US presidential inauguration), Bitcoin’s price tumbled significantly, hitting a low point around $76,273 on April 9. That’s a drop of just over 30% from the peak.
So, while the recent bounce-back is encouraging for bulls, the earlier volatility serves as a reminder that the path upwards isn’t always smooth. It’s this backdrop of recent recovery after a significant dip that makes predictions of sky-high prices particularly attention-grabbing.
CZ’s Prediction: BTC to Hit $500K-$1M by the End of the Current Cycle
Half a million dollars? Maybe even a million dollars? That’s the range Binance founder Changpeng Zhao dropped for Bitcoin’s potential peak this cycle during a recent Rug Radio interview. He wasn’t shy about it either. Naturally, you have to ask: why so bullish?
CZ highlighted several key factors, starting with the institutionalization of Bitcoin, largely driven by the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in the US. “There’s the ETFs. There’s this institutionalization of Bitcoin…” he noted, calling it “a positive in terms of price action.”
He elaborated that these ETFs are effectively “bringing the traditional institution money into crypto,” recognizing that in the US, “most of the money… is institutional money.” While acknowledging that altcoins haven’t benefited as much yet, he clearly sees the flow into Bitcoin ETFs as a major price driver. Market analysts like Alex Obchakevich seem to agree, suggesting that around 70% of Bitcoin’s recent growth could be attributed to new institutional capital flowing in via ETFs.
Beyond the institutions, CZ pointed to another significant trend: governments getting into Bitcoin. He sees increasing government accumulation as “really good for the price action” and also “very good validation” for BTC itself. We’re already seeing examples of this.
And we’re actually seeing this play out. El Salvador, the country that famously made Bitcoin legal tender, keeps adding BTC to its national stash, even while they’re in talks with the IMF. Then you’ve got the Kingdom of Bhutan, which reports say has also been quietly stacking Bitcoin, possibly setting up a strategic reserve for that new economic zone they’re building, the Gelephu Mindfulness City.
The third pillar of CZ’s argument is the dramatic shift in US policy. He observed that the United States “has pivoted 180 degrees under a pro-crypto president,” referring to the changes since Donald Trump took office.
This friendlier environment, he believes, makes moves like establishing national reserves more likely and signals to other nations that embracing BTC is a smart move. “They’re smart enough to recognise that buying Bitcoin is a great move, and now other countries will have to follow,” CZ commented. When asked about retail investors, his take was pragmatic: they “had 15 years to buy… if they’re late now, that was their choice,” implying the next big push will come from these larger players.
Weighing the Million-Dollar Forecast
Predicting Bitcoin’s price is notoriously tricky, and targets like $500,000 or $1 million certainly sound ambitious. However, CZ’s reasoning isn’t based on pure speculation but on observable trends: the institutional floodgates opened by ETFs, the nascent but growing interest from sovereign nations, and a potentially much more favorable regulatory environment in the world’s largest economy.
Whether Bitcoin actually reaches those lofty heights this cycle remains to be seen, of course. Market conditions can change quickly, and unexpected global events always play a role. But the underlying drivers CZ points to—institutional and governmental adoption—are undeniably powerful forces that could fundamentally reshape BTC’s valuation in the coming years. For now, the crypto world will be watching closely to see if these trends continue to accelerate and push Bitcoin towards the seemingly audacious targets set by one of its most well-known figures.
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