By Jacob Ogles
Fox News has moved its own ratings of seven U.S. House races in Democrats’ direction. The shift came the same day Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicted more trouble than expected for one South Florida Republican.
The Fox News Power Rankings announced shifts in its modeling for 15 races across the country, nearly half of those in Florida.
The candidate celebrating results most was U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, with prognosticators moving Florida’s 25th Congressional District out of the “Toss-up” column and into the “Lean D” category.
The Parkland Democrat is running in that district under a new congressional map that dismantled his current seat and forced him into one where almost 54% of voters supported Donald Trump in the last Presidential Election. He faces Republican Scott Singer.
Meanwhile, the Fox News ratings recast two districts previously considered “Lean R” as “Toss-up” contests. That includes Florida’s 14th Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, a Tampa Democrat, faces a challenge from Republican Mike Beltran, as well as Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, a seat with no incumbent where Republican Casey Askar is running against Democrat Pia Dandiya.
Meanwhile, the rankings change moved four other Florida districts from “Likely R” to “Lean R.”
That still leaves U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, a Kissimmee Democrat, as the most endangered Democrat in Florida’s congressional delegation, but it’s unlikely his caucus deems the race a lost cause, especially with polling from Soto’s campaign showing a dead heat between himself and Republican Dan Green.
It also puts Republican U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna, in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, and María Elvira Salazar, in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, in “Lean R” seats instead of “Likely R” races. Luna is being challenged by Democrat Leela Gray while Salazar contends with Democrat Eliott Rodriguez.
“The Hispanic voter shift is reshaping the map,” reads a post from the Fox News Politics social media account announcing the changes. “Democrats went from a D+12 advantage in the 2024 presidential race to D+29 in the latest generic ballot survey. That’s driving shifts across Florida.”
Finally, the rating change for Florida’s 7th Congressional District also moved it from “Likely R” to “Lean R.” That’s a notable development after Ryan Elijah defeated U.S. Rep. Cory Mills in a Republican Primary but still must battle Democrat Bale Dalton in the General Election.
Beyond the Fox News changes, Sabato’s Crystal Ball also updated its own rankings, one of only three House district shifts announced Tuesday. The election rater, housed at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, also shuffled Salazar’s district from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
“Salazar made national news last week for pushing back on the Trump administration’s heavy-handed immigration enforcement, and a big swing against Republicans in heavily Cuban-American South Florida can’t be ruled out, especially as Salazar faces a credible challenger in former newscaster Eliott Rodriguez (D),” reads an announcement on the change.
“This district backed Trump by 14.5 points but was much more competitive as recently as 2020.”
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