Earth on Track for Hottest Year on Record in 2026 as Looming Super El Niño Threatens 2027

Global temperatures are tracking to be the warmest ever in 2026, and El Niño’s lasting impact could make 2027 even hotter, says AccuWeather experts.

“El Niño often acts as a temporary accelerator of global heat,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson. “Its influence tends to unfold slowly as warmth spreads across the tropical Pacific and heat transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere, the strongest effect on global average temperatures often emerges in the calendar year after El Niño begins.”

From January to August 2026, global temperatures were +1.22°C (2.20°F) above the measured baseline, which would make it the second hottest year on record, behind only 2024. However, Anderson believes that a global average will increase through the end of 2026, likely making it the hottest year ever recorded.

“We measure global temperature and these types of records against a baseline temperature measured between 1951 and 1980,” he added. “Right now, global temperatures would need to average +1.49°C (+2.68°F) above that baseline over the final four months to set a new record, and the current conditions and strengthening El Niño suggest that will likely happen.”

El Niño’s Heat Transfers from Sea to Air

El Niño is measured by water temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. AccuWeather is near 100-percent certain a Super El Niño will occur, with measured water temperatures possibly becoming the warmest ever, making it the strongest El Niño on record.

However, the peak won’t occur until December or early January 2027, and although El Niño conditions are established by water temperatures, the impacts on larger atmospheric patterns and air temperatures take longer to develop.

“The delay occurs because the tropical Pacific and the above atmosphere do not heat evenly. It takes months for ocean heat to transfer into the atmosphere and influence temperatures around the world. Because El Niño often peaks during winter, much of its global warming effect carries well into the following calendar year, and history has shown this before,” Anderson said.

The most recent Super El Niño events peaked at the end of 1997 and 2015. The following years each time became the warmest years globally on record, upping the previous year’s global temperature from +0.47 C to +0.61°C above baseline from 1997-1998, and +0.90°C to +1.01°C above baseline from 2015-2016.

Global Heat is Heavily Influenced by Soil Moisture

As written about in AccuWeather’s Groundbreaking Climate Study for the contiguous 48-states, a lack of moisture in the soil also decreases the conductivity of heat deeper into the ground, so the heating from the sun is concentrated at the top level of the ground, therefore causing greater increases in air temperature.

El Niño redistributes rainfall around the world by shifting tropical patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Some regions become drier, while others experience more frequent clouds, rain and storms.

Where rainfall decreases, soils can dry out and less of the sun’s energy is used to evaporate moisture allowing warmer daytime high temperatures, while moist soil and increased storm activity can suppress those temperatures. Therefore, El Niño can raise the global average temperature while simultaneously intensifying heat in some areas and limiting it in others.