Confidence in a Super El Niño Climbs to 90 percent, Takes Greater Hold on Tropical Activity

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there is now a 90 percent chance a Super El Niño forms this summer. The strengthening conditions are expected to continue suppressing tropical activity in the Atlantic.

Despite this, AccuWeather hurricane experts are currently closely monitoring the southwestern Atlantic for development during the first two weeks of August beginning August 5. Areas being monitored include the eastern Gulf of Mexico near Florida, the Carolinas, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda, where conditions may support tropical development.

“There will be a couple of fronts that drop into this region and slowly meander around,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Waters are sufficiently warm in this region to foster tropical activity, and it appears wind shear will be relatively low in this area for a time compared to most prior weeks so far this summer.”

A tropical depression could form if a cluster of thunderstorms organizes into an area of low pressure that separates from the front and develops a warm-core circulation rather than relying on temperature contrasts along the front.

The AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Latest

AccuWeather hurricane experts are maintaining its previous forecast of 8-14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes and 3-5 direct U.S. impacts this season. The forecast was last updated in early July.

Already this season, Tropical Storm Arthur, and Tropical Storm Bertha have caused heavy rain and flooding across the Gulf region.

What AccuWeather Expert Meteorologists Are Tracking

• Super El Niño increasingly likely: More than a 90% likelihood it develops before hurricane season ends
• Atlantic La Niña may further limit activity: Cooler eastern Atlantic waters could create another obstacle for tropical development
• Development region remains quiet: Persistent atmospheric stability has limited thunderstorms where many Atlantic hurricanes form and may continue doing so

AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes
In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.