Atlantic Hurricane Drought May Break as Forecasters Track Potent Late-August Tropical Wave

Already weeks behind the historical pace, will the Atlantic Basin finish August without a Hurricane? AccuWeather hurricane experts say, ‘not so fast.’

A region with medium risk for development east of the Lesser Antilles could produce a tropical storm or hurricane by late this week or the start of next.

“A tropical wave coming off Africa right now adoes look very impressive,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “That wave is moving into a pocket of low wind shear and high moisture. These conditions won’t last however as the wave will encounter some dry air and some shear as it moves across the Main Development Region.”

While many forecasting models produce a storm that curves into the open ocean, DaSilva said people on the eastern seaboard should keep their eyes on this wave as it progresses across the Atlantic. Any potential U.S. impacts wouldn’t happen until late next week.

Any Hurricane that would make landfall in the U.S. would be the first since October 2024 after going all of 2025 without a landfalling hurricane from the Atlantic.

There Are Less Than 100 Days Left in the Hurricane Season

El Niño On Track To Rival The Worst On Record

It is the slowest start to the Atlantic Hurricane season since 2022, when the Atlantic basin went all of August without a tropical storm or hurricane. That season, seven hurricanes developed from September to November. However, a similar late season surge is not expected this season.

“As we put out in our most recent hurricane forecast, El Niño is continuing to drive high wind shear that can make it difficult for tropical systems to develop and strengthen. We are 100 percent confident that we will see Super El Niño conditions form, and the stronger the El Niño becomes, the more challenging tropical storm development conditions are in the Atlantic,” DaSilva added.

Despite being nearly halfway through the hurricane season by calendar date, historically, 60 to 70 percent of tropical storms form from late August through the end of November. The climatological peak of the hurricane season is between September 10-12.

Hurricane Forecast Update

Fueled by the increasingly strong El Niño conditions, AccuWeather now forecasts 8-11 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes and 1-2 major hurricanes during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Most likely outcome:

• Named Storms: 9 (previous July updated forecast called for 11)
• Hurricanes: 3 (previous July updated forecast called for 5)
• Major Hurricanes: 1 (previous July updated forecast called for 2)
• Direct U.S. Impacts: 4 (same as previous July updated forecast)