A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from Hispaniola northeastward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and adjacent Atlantic waters.
This activity is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any significant development of this system
during the next several days.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system could produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.
The area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has continued to become better organized, and is producing a large area of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form an any time today or Friday. Given the high chances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Most of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast.
The system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow pattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west-northwest during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system
reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. This is consistent with the output of the global models.