Super El Niño Reaches Historic Strength, Bringing Frequent Winter Storms and Severe Weather Risks to Florida

 AccuWeather’s long-range experts say that El Niño has now reached the very strong level, often called a “super El Niño,” for just the sixth time since 1950.

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say they have increasing confidence it could become the strongest on record, with implications for winter storms, flooding and snowfall across the country.

Pacific waters warmed further in October, bringing the event into a category last reached during the winter of 2015–16. AccuWeather anticipated the development of a super El Niño as early as late spring.

“AccuWeather has been forecasting a powerful El Niño since late spring. We remain near 100% certainty that strong-to-very-strong conditions will continue through the winter, compared with CPC’s probability of greater than 79%. This has been a foundation of our winter outlook, favoring wetter weather across the South and warmer conditions across much of the North,” said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Chad Merrill.

What That Means Across the Country

• South: Frequent storms and cloud cover could favor cooler periods while repeated rain raises rivers flooding concerns across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys by late winter. Some systems could also produce severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
• Northern U.S.: Fewer Arctic outbreaks could reduce sustained cold and heating demand. Below-average snowfall is forecast across much of the interior Northwest, upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast, although there can still be a few individual disruptive storms.
• Western mountains: More snow than last winter could benefit ski areas and build snowpack that helps replenish rivers and reservoirs next spring into summer.
• California: Repeated atmospheric rivers could bring flooding, landslides, and heavy Sierra Nevada snow. Elevated coastal water levels could also contribute to coastal flooding in between storms.

El Niño’s influence across North America is typically greatest during winter. Other atmospheric patterns will also influence storm tracks and regional conditions, so this event may produce different outcomes than previous super El Niño winters.