Florida’s Citrus Crisis: Production Plummets to Lowest Levels Since 1930

The Florida citrus industry, long the crown jewel of the state’s agricultural identity, is facing a moment of existential crisis. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast released in January 2026, the state is projected to produce just 12 million boxes of oranges this season. This staggering figure marks a 2% decline from last year’s already record-shattering lows, effectively returning Florida’s output to levels not seen since the Great Depression era of 1930.

A Century-Low Harvest: The “Perfect Storm”

The decline is the culmination of two decades of systemic challenges that have hollowed out the state’s groves. At its peak in the late 1990s, Florida produced 244 million boxes; today, that figure has shrunk by more than 95%.

Three primary factors are driving this collapse:

• Citrus Greening (HLB): This incurable bacterial disease, spread by the Asian citrus psyllid, has decimated groves across the state. Infected trees produce bitter, undersized fruit and eventually die. Despite millions in research, a scalable cure remains elusive.
• Climate & Hurricanes: The industry is still reeling from the cumulative damage of Hurricanes Ian (2022) and Milton (late 2024). These storms didn’t just blow fruit off trees; they uprooted entire groves and flooded root systems, leading to long-term tree stress.
• Vanishing Acreage: Florida has lost nearly two-thirds of its citrus acreage since 2004. Faced with rising costs and disease, many growers have sold their land to real estate developers, permanently removing it from agricultural use.

The Cost of a Glass: Retail Reality

For Florida residents, the most visible impact of this shortage is at the grocery store. Retail orange juice prices have reached historic highs, with some premium brands now selling for $8.00 to $10.00 per gallon.

While global juice futures have actually cooled recently—thanks to a production rebound in Brazil—Florida’s local processing costs remain high. Because the state’s juice industry is so heavily reliant on domestic fruit for its specific “Florida-grown” branding, the scarcity of local oranges keeps prices elevated even when global markets fluctuate.

The Battle to Rebound

Despite the grim numbers, the industry is not surrendering. The Florida Legislature allocated nearly $140 million in state funds for the current fiscal year to support the industry. Over $100 million of that is strictly for research and field trials of “disease-tolerant” trees.

Matt Joyner, CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, notes that while the numbers are lower than desired, “growers are reporting healthier trees and larger fruit” in specific test plots using new antimicrobial treatments. The goal has shifted from mass production to “precision agriculture,” focusing on higher yields from fewer, more resilient acres.

News Sources & Links

• USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service: Citrus Forecast – January 12, 2026
• Central Florida Ag News: USDA’s First 2025-26 Citrus Crop Estimate
• Insurance Journal: Florida Heads for Smallest Orange Crop in Nearly a Century
• The Food Institute: Feeling the Squeeze: Orange Juice Prices Continue to Climb
• Markets Insider: Orange Juice Futures and Market Prices
• WUSF News: Florida’s Citrus Industry Could See a Decrease This Season