The annual Black Friday retail marathon looked familiar on the surface but played out differently behind the scenes in 2025. According to industry publication Retail Dive, online discount levels held largely steady compared with last year, but the drivers of success have shifted.
While U.S. e-commerce sales reached about $11.8 billion on Black Friday — a 9.1 % year-over-year increase per Adobe Analytics — and were estimated at $18 billion via Salesforce data (a 3 % rise) the underlying metrics raised more alarms than celebration. Notably, online order volume dropped 1 % and units per transaction were down 2 % as average selling prices rose 7 %.
In the face of inflationary pressures and eroding consumer sentiment, some retailers pulled ahead by leaning into newer levers. For example:
- Traffic to U.S. retail websites from AI-driven sources soared 805% from last year, and shoppers arriving this way were 38% more likely to convert into sales.
- Retailers offering in-store exclusive perks stood out. One large chain handed out a limited-edition tote bag to the first 100 guests, while another gave away a product-filled bucket to its first 50 arrivals — all to motivate foot traffic.
Circana’s Chief Retail Advisor, Marshal Cohen, told Retail Dive: “The Black Friday that we have come to know and love has changed.” And: “Build it and they will come, give me a gift, and I’m going to show up… So you’ve got to incentivize the consumer to come to you versus someone else. Now, prices aren’t the answer, because everybody’s got similar prices.”
On the flip side, some longstanding indicators of success performed poorly. Flat discounting (e-commerce peak discounts remained around 28 % in the U.S., nearly the same as last year) signalled weaker urgency among buyers. Also, use of “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) rose 8.9% year-over-year — to $747.5 million in online spend — which may point to consumer overextension rather than healthy growth.
Foot-traffic data was also mixed. Early findings from RetailNext indicated a 3.6 % drop in in-store visits compared to last year, though another analytics firm reported a 1.17 % increase based on a different sample.
In short, while headline numbers may suggest a modest uptick this Black Friday, the more nuanced story highlights a shifting playing field. Retailers that leaned into AI engagement, experiential incentives and out-of-the-box perks found success — while those relying solely on price-cuts and volume struggle. For the consumer, caution is creeping in, and the frenzy of past years has settled into a more considered, if still high-stakes, shopping moment.
Source:
Disclaimer
Artificial Intelligence Disclosure & Legal Disclaimer
AI Content Policy.
To provide our readers with timely and comprehensive coverage, South Florida Reporter uses artificial intelligence (AI) to assist in producing certain articles and visual content.
Articles: AI may be used to assist in research, structural drafting, or data analysis. All AI-assisted text is reviewed and edited by our team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our editorial standards.
Images: Any imagery generated or significantly altered by AI is clearly marked with a disclaimer or watermark to distinguish it from traditional photography or editorial illustrations.
General Disclaimer
The information contained in South Florida Reporter is for general information purposes only.
South Florida Reporter assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the contents of the Service. In no event shall South Florida Reporter be liable for any special, direct, indirect, consequential, or incidental damages or any damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tort, arising out of or in connection with the use of the Service or the contents of the Service.
The Company reserves the right to make additions, deletions, or modifications to the contents of the Service at any time without prior notice. The Company does not warrant that the Service is free of viruses or other harmful components.
