Despite it all, the U.S. stock market has continued its climb. On Friday, the S&P 500 index closed up more than 12 percent on the year. It sits just shy of a record, having bounced back from the sharp April sell-off when Trump first announced severe tariffs, which were then partially rolled back.
“The stock market is filtering the economic data, and it sees good things going forward,” said Claudia Sahm, chief economist for New Century Advisors. “Households are seeing that same reality and coming down pretty pessimistic.”
Analysts and economists attribute the market’s steady growth in the face of worsening economic data to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a more active approach to stimulating the economy, possibly by lowering interest rates as soon as next week.
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