U.S. Could Lose More Immigrants Than It Gains For First Time In 50 Years

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By Andrew Ackerman and Lauren Kaori Gurley

For the first time in at least half a century, more people may leave the United States than arrive this year, an abrupt shift in immigration patterns with potentially significant implications for the U.S. economy.

Economists at two Washington think tanks expect President Donald Trump’s immigration policies to drive this reversal: from the near-total shutdown of the southern border to threats to international students and the loss of legal status for many new arrivals, according to a forthcoming paper. A rise in deportations — the aim of recent workplace raids that triggered protests in Los Angeles and other cities — also plays a role.

“For the year as a whole, we think it’s likely [immigration] will be negative,” Edelberg said. “It certainly would be the first time in more than 50 years.”

Edelberg and her colleague Tara Watson at the center-left Brookings Institution are working with Stan Veuger of the conservative American Enterprise Institute on the paper, which is due out this month. Their projections point to an increased likelihood of negative immigration in 2025, compared with the economists’ last projections published in December.

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