As of Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Erika was located several hundred miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands where Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect. The storm is forecast to generally move to the WNW the rest of this week.
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Erika to only strengthen slowly. However, it is possible the storm could reach hurricane status by this weekend in the Bahamas. The track and intensity is highly uncertain at this time and significant changes to both are possible over the next several days.
The greatest impediment to the storm is strong wind shear forecast to be present around Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. If the storm can overcome those conditions, then there is a higher chance for a much stronger storm as it gets close to the Bahamas.
Most computer models are clustered in the Bahamas by this weekend. A few models that predict Erika won’t survive the wind shear take it as a weak area of low pressure through the Keys.
It is too early to say if there will be any impacts to South Florida from this storm. Now is the perfect time to review your hurricane plan and supplies and be ready to take preparations by this weekend if necessary.
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