The storm was thousands of miles away east of the United States early Tuesday, but forecasters are carefully monitoring where it may head.
Although Erin’s long-term track is uncertain, two track scenarios appear more likely than the rest into next week:
- A northerly track into the western Atlantic Ocean would have the storm missing the Caribbean Islands and United States, but possibly affecting Bermuda.
- A more southerly track from the northern Caribbean to the Bahamas would put the Leeward Islands, East Coast and eastern Canada at risk of storm impacts.
Most storms take 8 to 12 days to cross the Atlantic — so any direct land impacts from Erin are unlikely until this weekend in the Caribbean, at the earliest.
Erin will encounter very warm ocean water north of the Caribbean Islands later this week, aiding in its likely intensification. These unusually warm waters have forecasters concerned about a heightened risk for impacts to the East Coast this hurricane season.
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