With tariffs swinging markets from highs to lows in the span of hours, it helps to look at other indicators to gauge the state of our economy: home sales, the average weekly hours for manufacturing employees, how many dolls a little girl is allowed to get for Christmas. Me? I’m watching pizza sales.
For the longest time, pizza has been the go-to dinner order for anyone looking to feed a family fast and on the cheap. What’s often touted as America’s favorite food took on another attribute during the pandemic: safe. Domino’s Pizza Inc., the largest of the delivery chains, and its smaller rival Papa John’s International Inc. each registered double-digit year-over-year same-store sales increases in the US and North America, respectively, in 2020, helped by Covid-19 lockdowns. Pizza Hut finally saw that kind of lift in the first quarter of 2021, by which time inflation had started to bubble up, enhancing the value proposition. In an earnings call that quarter, David Gibbs, chief executive officer of parent Yum! Brands Inc., chalked up the success to several factors, including the “compelling value” of Pizza Hut’s $10 Tastemaker offer—a large pie with any three toppings.
Four years on, though, it looks as if low-income consumers are being priced out of pizza. Those same-store sales were down at all three pizza chains in the first quarter of 2025, declining 5% at Pizza Hut, 2.7% at Papa John’s and 0.5% at Domino’s. Domino’s did have one metric to celebrate, at least: Takeout ticked up 1%, because, as Chief Financial Officer Sandeep Reddy explained in an earnings call, it costs less than delivery.
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This article originally appeared here and was republished with permission.
