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The ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Is A Big Risk For House Republicans. Many Of Them Hope Otherwise. (Video)

The Capitol office of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) on Thursday, when his chamber passed the One Big Beautiful Bill. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)
Analysis by Dan Balz

The 2026 midterm elections are still far into the future, but Republicans are placing a big and risky bet that they can survive the coming attacks on President Donald Trump’s spending and tax cut bill and the potential impact of his erratic tariff policies. History is not on their side.

That spending and tax cut bill, titled the One Big Beautiful Bill, still has significant hurdles ahead. It passed the House by a single vote early Thursday after lobbying by the president and late adjustments to accommodate both deficit hawks and blue-state moderates. Senate Republicans promise to rework it before it goes back to the House for what could be another “Perils of Pauline” episode before it reaches Trump’s desk.

For Trump, the bill is something of an everything bagel, a package well-stuffed with items large and small. Republicans know the bill could amount to the entirety of his legislative agenda this year and next. The president prefers executive actions to legislative sausage-making. Some things — the setting of tax rates or the contours of Medicaid eligibility, for example — depend on the work of Congress.

Faith Based Events

The bill would extend individual and corporate tax cuts approved during Trump’s first term, add campaign promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, lift the state and local tax (SALT) cap, and make a variety of other changes, such as adding about $150 billion for border security. It would cut about $700 billion from projected Medicaid spending over the next decade, in large part through new work and reporting requirements for recipients. About $280 billion would be cut from the food stamp program, with new work requirements added.

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