Tariffs Are Driving Up the Cost of Your Morning Coffee. Can Congress Stop It?

Coffee prices are rising faster than any other grocery item, and a bipartisan group of lawmakers says the inflation has gone too far.

The price of coffee has soared 20.9% in the past year and increased 3.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July to August, according to the latest consumer price index report. Experts warn that even higher retail coffee prices are still to come.

On Friday, several House lawmakers introduced a bill to repeal tariffs on coffee. “Why are we tariffing American citizens on something that we don’t even grow? It doesn’t make sense,” Rep. Don Bacon, R.-Neb., told the Washington Post.

In January, when Trump threatened unexpected tariffs on Colombia, coffee prices jumped again. Then, in April, an announcement of a 46% tariff rate on Vietnam, also a coffee exporter, added further pressure to prices.

Threats of high tariffs on coffee-producing countries intensified this summer. In July, Trump placed a 50% tariff rate on Brazil, the world’s leading coffee exporter, immediately causing panic in the coffee industry. The cost of a pound of ground roast coffee reached a record of $8.87 in August.

On Sept. 5, the situation turned even more complicated when the president issued an executive order laying out a path to a 0% tariff rate for items that “cannot be grown, mined or naturally produced” domestically. Coffee fits that bill, but the exemption is contingent on the administration coming to agreements with trading partners.

In addition to Brazil, the other top countries for U.S. coffee imports are Colombia (10% tariff rate) and Switzerland (39% tariff rate).

The new bill introduced to Congress by Bacon and Ro Khanna, D-Calif., would lower tariffs on coffee to Biden-era rates. According to a press release from the lawmakers, “That level was 0% on everything other than coffee substitutes containing coffee.”

Will the “No Coffee Tax Act” pass?

For the bill to move through Congress, Bacon and Khanna would need additional Republicans to support the legislation, which defies the president’s tariff goals. To date, Trump has enacted his tariffs through executive actions, sidestepping the need to round up support from Republicans in Congress, where the GOP majority is thin.

It’s not clear where every member stands on tariff issues. Historically, many Republican lawmakers have advocated for free trade. In May, for example, Sen. Ted Cruz, R.-Tx., said tariffs are a tax paid for by Americans. But going against the president on tariffs would carry political consequences for most lawmakers. The handful of senators who’ve criticized them already have risked fracturing their relationships with the White House.

If prices continue to rise at the grocery store, is it possible that legislation such as the “No Coffee Tax Act” could gain momentum in Congress? Maybe. But is there a world in which this bill gets through Congress with enough support to overcome a veto? Probably not.

The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in a legal challenge to the president’s tariffs in November in a case that could determine if the president can continue to rely on emergency powers for his tariff program. If not, the administration would need to look at other mechanisms for imposing tariffs — or try to get congressional approval.