A newly released S&P Global analysis estimates that U.S. companies will incur $1.2 trillion in additional costs from tariffs over the course of 2025, a burden experts warn is largely being shifted to consumers.
The report, built on data from thousands of corporate analysts, finds that many firms underestimated the scale of tariff impacts at the start of the year. According to S&P, the suspension of the so-called “de minimis rule” — which had allowed small-value imports to enter duty-free — has significantly increased cost pressures on importers.
While businesses initially absorbed a large share of costs, rising input prices and constrained profit margins are forcing many to pass those increases down the supply chain. The study notes that inflationary pressures from tariffs are beginning to erode gains made possible by efficiency advances like AI.
Economists warn that this dynamic risks squeezing consumer spending just as inflation remains elevated. Some forecasts suggest that U.S. consumers may ultimately shoulder more than half of the tariff costs, potentially fueling further price increases in household goods, electronics, and other imports.
Major retailers and manufacturers are already responding. Companies such as Adidas, Walmart, and Home Depot have announced price hikes, citing rising import and supply chain costs as key drivers.
As the U.S. economy contends with multiple headwinds — from trade friction to continued inflationary pressures — analysts say the latest S&P report underscores the potentially deepening strain on household budgets and corporate margins alike.
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