Sunburn – The Morning Read Of What’s Hot In Florida Politics – 8.23.22 – Happy Election Day!

Take a moment to look at The County Election by George Bingham.

Bingham painted a series of canvasses celebrating elections in newly created states along the Western frontier.

Here, gathered around the polling place is a crowd of characters, including the happy drunk whose vote has been bought with liquor and the downcast loyalist whose candidate has lost and who bows his head with more than a hangover. The sole African American, excluded from the voting process, stands at the left edge of the canvas serving hard cider. Women are notably absent from the scene.

Bingham himself was a disappointed politician, denied election to the Missouri statehouse in 1846 by crooked dealing. He swore never to get involved in politics again, but, in the end, he found himself addicted to the competition, was elected a legislator in 1848, and served as state treasurer during the Civil War.

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A closing poll of likely Democratic Primary voters shows Charlie Crist is in position to win the Democratic Primary for Governor in a landslide.

St. Pete Polls conducted its final survey ahead of the Democratic Primary on who voters intend to choose as the Democratic nominee.

More than 59% said Crist, the former Republican Governor-turned-Democratic Congressman. Almost 30% said Nikki Fried, Florida’s Agriculture Commissioner.

Another 11% remained undecided or declined to answer, but that leaves little room for the vote to swing before the final ballots are cast Tuesday.

That’s especially true because the majority (57%) of those polled said they had already cast their ballot. Crist’s lead was larger among that crowd, with 63% telling St. Pete Polls he had already received their vote compared to 31% who said they voted for Fried. The remaining 6% declined to answer.

Crist’s lead also spans most demographics, topping Fried among men 55%-34% and women 63%-26%. Additionally, Crist pulls support from 57% of White Democrats, 62% of Black Democrats and 61% of Hispanic Democrats.

Fried holds a 2-point lead in the Gainesville region, 42%-40%, and she’s tied with Crist in Panama City. However, Crist leads in every other region of the state.

Fried’s communications director, Keith Edwards, blasted the poll and said it was an attempt by Florida Politics to influence coverage of the Primary race. Florida Politics commissioned the poll.

“This is not an independent poll. It’s a campaign tactic attempting to influence your coverage of a race that even Charlie Crist’s team has admitted is close as hell. The only independent poll that has been released is the University of North Florida and it has Nikki Fried up by 4,” he said.

“Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried make case to voters on Election Eve” via Roger Simmons, Steven Lemongello and Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel — The two battled over who would be the best candidate to take on Ron DeSantis, who has amassed a $100 million-plus campaign fund and national political attention as a possible Presidential candidate in 2024. Crist planned to close his campaign by bringing his “Hope for Florida” tour to his hometown of St. Petersburg on Monday evening. Fried blasted Crist for his Republican past and accused him of being opposed to abortion rights, which Crist denied. Fried’s “Something New” tour was traveling the state from her home in Miami to Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville. In their one debate, Crist said Fried’s attacks were an act of “desperation” from a candidate far behind in the race.

—”On eve of Democratic Primary, Crist eyes contest with Ron DeSantis” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—“Fried’s campaign prospects fade in prediction markets” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Affiliates of the Fried campaign continue to talk about a “wave” of support, but if one leading prediction market is right, it’s a flat surf. Action on the PredictIt platform shows what appears to be a final fade for Fried’s campaign, which she finished with a flurry of activity that does not appear to have impressed investors in the 2022 Democratic Primary market. The most recent hourly spot price for a “Yes” share for Fried is an anemic 6 cents, by far her lowest performance of the campaign on the platform. A “Yes” share was 13 cents just a few hours earlier. Crist “Yes” shares have been priced over 90 cents for a few hours, with the final push over the 90-cent threshold corresponding with the Fried dip.

Fried airs ‘Won’t Back Down’ ad on eve of Primary — Fried’s campaign is airing an ad featuring images of women’s rights advocates throughout history until the modern day. The ad, which uses “I Won’t Back Down” by Tom Petty as the backing track, also includes footage of Fried speaking at a rally. “We have got to be standing on the shoulders of the women that came before us, really every little girl in Florida and across the country, we are doing this for you,” she says.

To watch the ad, please click on the image below:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1xn98GTTpRs&version=3&rel=1&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&fs=1&hl=en-US&autohide=2&wmode=transparent

Tweet, tweet:

It’s Primary Eve in Florida, and Charlie Crist just held an event at the Manhattan Casino, a place of historic importance to the Black community of St. Petersburg.

He said he’ll bring “decency” back to the Governor’s office. “That’s why this campaign is going to be successful.” pic.twitter.com/TJGpTo951N

— Emily L. Mahoney (@mahoneysthename) August 22, 2022

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.