Sunburn – The Morning Read Of What’s Hot In Florida Politics – 8.1.22

Listen up — With the Aug. 23 Primaries only three weeks away, a new Hunkering Down features four consultants from both sides of the aisle — Brett Doster, Christian Ulvert, Anthony Pedicini and Max Goodman — for an insider’s look at the interesting races to watch.

Please take a few minutes and give a listen here.

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— It’s no secret that President Joe Biden is unpopular, but after 18 months of gridlock, he’s starting to score some wins — gas prices are falling, the “chips plus” package is moving forward, and the Democratic majority may finally act to reduce drug prices. The only question is, will voters notice in time for the Democrats to pull out of their nose-dive?

— The Capitolist publisher has gone full Vince McMahon. In an 1,800-word scrawl, Brian Burgess points fingers at every publication but his own. Nobody was expecting a mea culpa, of course, but it probably would be better if he exercised his right to remain silent.

— Election Day is around the corner and voters deserve to know as much as possible about the people running to represent them in the Legislature. That’s why Florida Politics has assigned Andrew Meacham — arguably our best writer — to get them on the line for deep-dive interviews. The first in the series, featuring HD 60 Democrat Lindsay Cross, is live and more are on the way.

— Democrats and Republicans have at least one thing in common: They both believe members of the other party are bullies who are spreading misinformation. They also look to party affiliation when choosing their friends. According to a University of Chicago poll, political views are a bigger factor than a potential friend’s taste in music or movies, ethnicity, religion, job, or even favorite sports teams.

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Who will win the Republican Primaries in Florida’s 13th and 15th Congressional Districts? Who will come out on top in the Democratic Primary for Governor? And who will not be running for President in two years?

For our latest Florida Influencer Poll, we asked a sample of political experts and insiders these questions and found pretty strong feelings.

In the Pinellas-based CD 13, 83% of Influencers say Anna Paulina Luna will repeat as the Republican nominee while only 12% believe Kevin Hayslett can manage to pull off a come-from-behind victory. Amanda Makki was the only other candidate to register, picking up the remaining 5%.

In CD 15, another Tampa Bay-area seat, a majority of Influencers (61%) are putting their chips on former Secretary of State Laurel Lee to win the GOP nomination. Exiting state Sen. Kelli Stargel was the pick for about a quarter of Influencers, while state Rep. Jackie Toledo garnered 14%. Two other Republicans are running but, just like voters in every CD 15 poll to date, Influencers paid them no mind.

And, in what was perhaps the least shocking prediction in the survey, Influencers say U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist will defeat Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried in the Democratic Primary for Governor. It wasn’t close — the former Republican Governor and 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee is seen as a likely winner by 94% of Influencers compared to just 6% who believe Fried will have the edge once all votes are counted.

Finally, Florida Politics asked Influencers which likely 2024 candidate they believe will ultimately not run for President. More than half (52%) said Biden — an uncontroversial pick, considering some in his own party are already flirting with mounting their own campaigns. The No. 2 pick was Donald Trump at 32%, followed by Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16%.

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In 100 days, Florida voters will choose whether to give DeSantis four more years or reverse course and elect the state’s first Democratic Governor since Lawton Chiles.

A memo from Crist’s gubernatorial campaign attempts to make the case that, for the third time in his political career, his name should be on the November ballot for Governor.

The campaign’s reasoning: he’s raised $14 million to date and cultivated more than 170 endorsements. Most importantly, the memo says, a recent poll showed Crist could eke out a victory.

No, it’s not a public poll. But it’s not one of the Crist campaign’s internal polls, either. According to a memo, the measure is “a secret poll conducted by a top GOP pollster showing Crist leading Ron DeSantis 48% to 47%.” The poll of 1,200 registered Florida voters was conducted in mid-May by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and was recently obtained by NBC News.

Whether Crist will be the Democratic nominee won’t be decided until the Aug. 23 Primary, but most signs are pointing in that direction as of now.

Crist leads his top rival, Fried, in the money race and most polls. The campaign notes that he’s currently polling at 55% among Democratic Primary voters, including among women and Black voters.

There are still a few weeks left for Fried to catch up, and her campaign has booked a boatload of ad time for the final push. Crist’s has, too. Now it’s time to see who has the better showing in the only poll that matters: Election Day.

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It wouldn’t be campaign season without a slew of TV ads — and new spots launched Monday that feature two candidates and a Sarasota tax referendum.

Laurel Lee vows to back police in new CD 15 ad — Republican Lee is launching a new ad in the race for Florida’s 15th Congressional District. Titled “Split Second,” the ad opens with a dramatization of an officer-involved shooting. “Police officers risk their lives to protect ours, they must make split-second decisions. Liberals condemn those decisions because they’ve never had to make them,” Lee says in the spot. She then highlights her career as a “conservative prosecutor” who was “appointed by Gov. DeSantis to safeguard our elections.” She concludes, “In Congress, I’ll defend the rule of law — and those who serve it.” Lee is one of five Republicans running for the Tampa Bay-area seat, with other major candidates including Stargel and Toledo. CD 15 will likely vote Republican in the General Election.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

Split Second Ad from Laurel Lee on Vimeo.

Doug Broxson drops new ad in SD 1 — Sen. Broxson is releasing a new ad in his re-election campaign for Senate District 1. Titled “Winning,” the TV ad spotlights the Panhandle Republican’s track record as a Senator, with shout-outs for his efforts to expand charter schools, cut taxes and reduce tolls on Garcon Point Bridge. The ad says Broxson is seeking another term “to stand with Gov. DeSantis” and “against Joe Biden and Washington’s woke liberals.” Broxson faces John Mills in the Republican Primary. Democrat Charlie Nichols is also running for the seat, though the district is safely Republican.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

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New ad says Ford O’Connell ‘might as well be a Democrat’ — A new ad produced by political committee Floridians for Positive Change lays into HD 77 candidate Ford O’Connell. “Rush Limbaugh warned us,” the ad narrator says, before playing audio from 2016 when the now-deceased conservative talk show host said O’Connell “wants to turn the Republican Party into a RINO party.” The ad then attacks O’Connell for supposedly trashing Ronald Reagan, calling Trump’s candidacy “beyond idiotic.” The closer: Rush was right. RINO Ford O’Connell: so liberal he might as well be a Democrat.” O’Connell is up against Tiffany Esposito in the Republican Primary for HD 77. The winner of the nominating contest will face Democrat Eric Engelhart in November.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

It’s a no-brainer — Common Cents for Sarasota County today is launching its first campaign advertisement supporting the penny tax referendum that will appear on Sarasota County ballots this November. Benefiting the county since 1989, the nonpartisan referendum provides critical funding for public safety, water quality, the environment and other community needs. The nearly two-minute video advertisement, entitled “No-Brainer” showcases the beauty of Sarasota County and details how the penny tax has helped and will continue to help maintain the region’s quality of life. The referendum passed with more than 66% of the vote the last time it was up for renewal, with the Sarasota Herald-Tribune calling it a “solid-gold performer.” The ad highlights footage from all corners of the county that have received help from the penny tax, from a fire station in North Port to a fishing pier in Venice to a library in Englewood to parks in Sarasota and Longboat Key. “And the best part, tourists and visitors pay for over 20% of all the funds collected by the penny,” says the ad’s narrator, referring to a recent independent study.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

Tweet, tweet:

The free state of Florida has a new license plate for pre-order that benefits the Florida Veterans Foundation and sends a clear message to out-of-state cars, “Don’t Tread on Me” or Florida.

Visit your local tax collector to purchase your presale voucher: https://t.co/Nr8S4kAoqk

— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) July 30, 2022

—@KyLamb8: I was thinking, @ChristinaPushaw and @BryanDGriffin are two of the best press secretaries in the business, but one thing that really sets them apart is they don’t engage with desperate whataboutism. Good lesson here in fighting attacks from those unable to defend bad policies.

—@KevAKing: I like Charlie. I like Nikki Fried from a distance. I don’t know her. Both are acceptable choices. But I stopped reading this editorial after they said Charlie Crist appears “ready for prime time.” A world with less editorial boards and more actual newsrooms would be nice.

Tweet, tweet:

Monday. 47.#SomethingNew pic.twitter.com/52SkAmNJ85

— Nikki Fried (@NikkiFried) July 30, 2022

—@KevinCate: Can tell the candidates using RT farms and paying trolls because their videos get next to no views. Those RTs on their other tweets aren’t real.

Tweet, tweet:

Last night, when @LeaderBookFL told Josey and her daughter Sandy, from Vibing Hair Creation, that she’d “stop by sometime” (to see why landlord wasn’t keeping up), I’m pretty sure they weren’t expecting this.#LeadersLead https://t.co/2CPn6ocVen pic.twitter.com/2Xkba7D30O

— Sen. Jason Pizzo (@senpizzo) July 30, 2022

—@Alex_Patton: Today, the political fundraising emails are reaching a next level of crazy. Psssssst … The best FR email I ever sent was “max out and I will take you off the list and you’ll never from me again until next year …” Highest grossing email ever.

—@prchovanec: The idea that you can’t enjoy the artistic output of someone you disagree with politically is one of the most fanatical and nonsensical ideas out there.

—@GiancarloSopo: A new CBS poll shows a statistical tie among Hispanics in the 2022 generic ballot. Context: Democrats won Hispanics by 40 points in 2018. This is a seismic shift in American politics.

Tweet, tweet:

Legend. pic.twitter.com/5M45lJnSPU

— Pete Souza (@PeteSouza) July 31, 2022

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.