Sunburn — The Morning Read Of What’s Hot In Florida Politics — 7.6.22

Good Wednesday morning.

According to the latest FiveThirtyEight summary of polling across the state, Gov. Ron DeSantis is heavily favored to win re-election, and Florida’s congressional delegation will be more than two-thirds Republican.

This updated election forecast suggests the marquee races will be blowouts — and not just by Sunshine State standards.

Assuming U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist is the Democratic nominee for Governor, which appears likely based on Primary polls, DeSantis is expected to win 54%-42%.

The outlet predicts a 12-point spread in the race between incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings as well.

As of now, FiveThirtyEight is leaving little room for an upset. Its model simulated the election 40,000 times, finding the Republicans would 94% of the time.

The same model produced a similarly tilted down-ballot result.

According to the forecast, Florida’s U.S. House delegation will comprise 20 Republicans and eight Democrats, a three-seat loss for Democrats despite Florida adding the 28th District.

FiveThirtyEight does make some interesting divinations as far as Primary results go, such as anointing Rep. Jackie Toledo as the expected nominee in Florida’s 15th Congressional District.

Still, it expects there will be little competition after Aug. 23.

As it stands, the closest federal race in the state will be in Florida’s 23rd Congressional District, where Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz, the Democratic front-runner, has an 85% chance to dispatch Republican Jim Pruden on Election Day.

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As Mayor Lenny Curry approaches the end of his second term, Jacksonville voters say they want the city to move in a different direction and that they believe Donna Deegan is the candidate who can make that happen.

According to FrederickPolls, Deegan is leading the crowded field for Jacksonville Mayor with 30% support among likely voters in the March 2023 election.

“This poll shows the real connection, and confidence Donna has built across the Jacksonville community,” said Pat McCollough, Deegan’s campaign manager. “It is further proof of our momentum that Donna’s track record, message of real change, and vision of a Jacksonville that works for everyone is resonating with voters in every section of the city.”

The top-line figure puts Deegan 13 points ahead of Sen. Audrey Gibson and Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Davis, each at 17%.

Deegan, a Democrat, leads among voters of her party as well as among independent voters. She also fared well among Republicans, placing third of eight candidates among GOP voters. Broken by race, the poll shows that 60% of White voters who are Democrats or independents prefer Deegan. Meanwhile, 35% of Black voters told the pollster she was their top pick.

Voters were also asked whether they want the city to “change directions” or “continue moving in the same direction” as it has under Curry, with 61% saying they were ready for a fresh approach at city hall.

“Donna Deegan is the clear front-runner with a direct path to making the runoff in this crowded field of competitors,” said Keith Frederick of FrederickPolls. “Her broad and deep support is stable; built upon a foundation of trust and familiarity achieved from decades of service to the community.”

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The Florida Alliance to End Human Trafficking is bringing on Robyn Metcalf Blank as Director of Special Projects.

“Robyn’s experience and passion will be a tremendous asset as we form partnerships with local service providers, advocates and task-forces with a goal of increasing statewide awareness and training on human trafficking,” said Executive Director Erin Collins.

Blank brings over a decade of experience advocating and developing solutions to improve outcomes for Florida’s most vulnerable children.

She previously served as the Statewide Director for the Open Doors Outreach Network, providing care and support services to survivors of sex trafficking aged 10-24 throughout the state. She also served as the Associate Executive Director for the American Children’s Campaign, advocating for policy changes benefiting Florida children.

Blank currently serves on the board of directors for the National Florida State University Alumni Association. She has volunteered with the Junior League of Tallahassee, Guardian Ad Litem and Relay for Life and previously served on the FSU College of Social Work Alumni Group board of directors.

She earned bachelor’s and master’s degrees in social work as well as a master’s degree in public administration from FSU. She was named a 2020 Notable Nole by the FSU Alumni Association and in 2016, she received the Distinguished Young Alumni Award from the FSU College of Social Work.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@BrianMastFL: One year ago, the White House bragged that the cost of 4th of July BBQs was down 16 cents. This year, it was up more than $10. They must have forgot to tweet that.

—@LeaderBookFL: Judge (John) Cooper’s injunction to protect a woman’s access to health care lasted < 1 hr before the state filed its draconian appeal. There is a battle waging in FL & across the country to fleece citizens’ freedoms under archaic, conservatively stacked constitutional interpretations.

—@MarcACaputo: It’s not just the media watching DeSantis’s war chest. It’s (Donald) Trump as well, and it could contribute to an early announcement by the former President

—@jacobogles: This has felt like the longest qualifying week ever.

—@Conservemillen: There’s nothing more dangerous than a man with nothing to do and no one to live for. This has been true in every place for all of time. Our young men are drowning in idleness, purposelessness & godlessness and we’re paying for it.

—@SecretaryPete: Sometimes, an airline will offer you points or miles as compensation, but you are entitled to a cash refund when your flight is canceled. When deciding whether to accept miles, it’s helpful to know their value, which varies, but often is estimated at 1 to 1.5 cents per mile.

Tweet, tweet:

Always always always read the letters pic.twitter.com/NHAIMpzHFw

— Gordon Russell (@GordonRussell1) July 5, 2022

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.