Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 11.7.22

 Good Monday morning.

A new poll of Florida Republicans shows Gov. Ron DeSantis would beat Donald Trump in the 2024 Primary for the GOP nomination.

Data for Progress surveyed 777 likely Republican Primary and found the Governor leading the former President 44%-42%.

This wasn’t a head-to-head — the poll included 10 other potential candidates, such as U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio and former Vice President Mike Pence. The only other candidate to garner more than 1% support was U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, whose anti-Trump views doomed her re-election to Congress.

When the field is narrowed to DeSantis and Trump, DeSantis rockets out to a double-digit lead, 52%-41%. The only other candidates that Data for Progress put in a one-on-one with Trump were Pence and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina. Trump beats his former VP 76%-18%, and Scott 75%-16%.

More good news for DeSantis 2024: His favorability rating is through the roof at plus-81, which is 19 points higher than Trump’s plus-62 rating in Florida.

More than three-quarters of those polled said they “strongly approve” of the job Trump did as President, and 80% said they “strongly like” Trump’s positions on policy issues. The drop among those who said they would support DeSantis in the Primary is negligible.

The main hang-up appears to be Trump’s “tone or how he talks about people and the issues.” That’s something only about half Florida Republicans like — either strongly or somewhat — while 46% said they strongly or somewhat dislike the former President’s tone.

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Eric Lynn is getting an eleventh-hour endorsement from former President Barack Obama.

Lynn, the Democratic nominee in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, served as a Senior Adviser to Secretaries of Defense from both parties during the Obama administration, from 2008-15.

“We need more leaders like Eric who have a track record of making common sense decisions that put people first,” Obama says in a new radio ad.

“That’s what Eric has done throughout his career — working with our military to keep America secure and stand up for our values here at home and around the world. In Congress, I know Eric will do the same for the people of Pinellas. He’ll work to fight inflation, lower costs and protect a woman’s right to choose.”

Also over the weekend, former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta recorded a video reiterating his support for Lynn, who served under him.

Lynn said he was honored to have earned endorsements from his former bosses.

“Serving my country at the Pentagon and in his administration was the honor of a lifetime and in Congress, I will always stand up for our veterans and work tirelessly to keep our community and our country safe and secure.”

Lynn faces Republican Anna Paulina Luna in the General Election for CD 13, an open seat that slightly favors the GOP. The race has been one of the most expensive congressional contests in the state, with more than $8.4 million in ad spending backing Lynn and $5.2 million backing Luna.

To view the ad, please click on the image below:

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— Bad weather is on the way to Florida’s east coast, just in time for Election Day. On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said the tropical disturbance out in the Atlantic has a high chance of becoming a cyclone in the next day or so. High winds aren’t expected to show up to the polls, but there will be lots of water, so pack a poncho and an umbrella.

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Congratulations to Rep. Josie Tomkow and top GOP consultant Tom Piccolo on their engagement!

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There were a lot of great reads this weekend:

— A disappearing warning sign: Earlier in September, New York Times Chief Political Analyst Nate Cohn noticed a warning sign in the polls. Democrats were showing strength in the same places where polls overestimated their chances in 2020. That suggested their leads might not be real. Now though, the warning signs are gone. “There is no longer any material relationship between relative Democratic or Republican strength in the key Senate races and the polling error from 2020.” While it looks like polls have righted themselves, Cohn cautions that it doesn’t mean there won’t still be polling errors this time around. Read more here.

— Elections gambling > sports betting? The American government doesn’t allow organized betting on elections. The founders of a company that believes anything can turn into a wager, Kalshi, wants to change that by convincing regulators that gambling on elections isn’t a threat to American democracy. To do so, one of their primary arguments, according to a feature in theinformation.com, is that it’s not actually betting. The Kalshi model instead serves as an opinion market, or a decision market, and allows customers to purchase contracts worth a dollar. Wagers can combine up to $25,000 worth of contracts for a single event. It’s an investment in the event, they argue, not a bet. Supporters believe adding politics to the company’s contract offerings is a way to provide relief from a volatile process, not to mention a massive business opportunity.

— Follow the election trail IRL: The ABC News series “Power Trip: Those who seek power and those who chase them,” is now streaming on Hulu. The series follows seven reporters following campaigns as they capture all the events and stories leading up to Nov. 8. It follows Democrats and their big-name surrogates fighting to preserve their congressional majority, and GOP figures fighting to take it. It feels like requisite pre-election watching. Catch it on Hulu.

— Victims of Communism Day: For the first time since its passage in the Legislature, the state will formally recognize Victims of Communism Day. Lawmakers passed this year and the Governor signed into law a bill that requires observation each year on Nov. 7, including in public schools. Under the new observed day, high school students will receive specified instruction on communism and its effects.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@Jack: Folks at Twitter past and present are strong and resilient. They will always find a way no matter how difficult the moment. I realize many are angry with me. I own the responsibility for why everyone is in this situation: I grew the company size too quickly. I apologize for that.

—@CostaReports: Spoke to several close Trump allies early this eve who say the reality is Trump can’t stand being ignored, wants to claim part of GOP gains as his own, resents attn on DeSantis and on Pence’s book, and, as several put it, wants “revenge.” And he believes RNC will fall in line.

Tweet, tweet:

Sunburnt and rain soaked after a long day in Miami where Trump gave a final boost to @marcorubio, as @GovRonDeSantis continued his final push during a handful of rallies in other parts of state https://t.co/bObaML6xPW
W/@fineout

— Matt Dixon (@Mdixon55) November 7, 2022

—@MaggieNYT: And most likely not a total coincidence but Roger Stone, who’s been most aggressively attacking DeSantis in public, wrote in a Truth Social post several days ago, “@realDonaldTrump’s endorsement MADE Ron DeSanctimonius Governor #ingrate.”

—@RadioFreeTom: Imagine being DeSantis and going to all the trouble of hiding your Ivy degree and learning to imitate Trump — the Mob goon pinky finger, the accordion hands, the drunken centaur posture — and your reward is to get a ten-cent, six-syllable nickname and told to get out of the way.

—@DaveReaboi: Re “Ron DeSanctimonious”— not only is it a lame put-down, the word choice reveals insecurity: what could DeSantis be accused of being “sanctimonious” about? Being right on COVID before anyone else, making Florida a free state while everyone else was scared and listening to (Anthony) Fauci.

—@BryanDGriffin: Those from Cuba, South America, or Eastern Europe have plenty of criticisms to offer on communism — and since November 7th is now ‘Victims of Communism Day’ in Florida, the willfully ignorant will have a harder time keeping up this ruse.

—@StrandJunker: I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it a thousand times: The economy will come back, your rights may not. — Vote.

—@MattYGlesias: The only poll that matters is the highly inaccurate exit poll they take on Election Day that becomes fodder for everyone’s analytic takes that are then never revisited even as the data is reweighted months or even years later based on better samples.

Tweet, tweet:

pic.twitter.com/iUxQu5arbo

— Ryan Brune (@BruneElections) November 6, 2022

— DAYS UNTIL —

2022 General Election — 1; ‘The Crown’ Season 5 returns — 2; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 4; FITCon 2022 begins — 9; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 10; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 14; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 17; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 26; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 26; 2022 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 28; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 29; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 39; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 55; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 86; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 102; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 103; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 120; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 138; Taylor Swift ‘Eras’ Tour in Tampa — 159; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 162; 2023 Session Sine Die — 179; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 179; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 207; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 256; ‘‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 263; Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 361; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 508; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 564; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 627; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 627; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 669; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 732; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 830; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 907. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,096.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

The post Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 11.7.22 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..