Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 11.3.22

 Good Thursday morning.

I’ll be joining my work wife, Matt Dixon of POLITICO, at the Fall Conference of the Florida Court Clerks and Comptrollers. If you’re in Sandestin, come to say hi.

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Here’s some good news about a great person — Lobbying firm Corcoran Partners is adding Samantha Greer to its advocacy team as a partner in the firm’s Tampa office.

“Samantha embodies everything our firm values and aims to provide to our clients. She is a respected professional who holds herself to the highest levels of integrity and excellence,” said Mike Corcoran, founding partner and CEO. “We are beyond blessed and honored to have her joining our team. Samantha brings extensive governmental relations experience, knowledge, and passion that will elevate our strategies and solutions for all those we work with.”

Greer joins the firm from the University of Florida, where she served as Director of Government Relations as the institution achieved a Top 5 ranking among public universities. She previously worked as the lead lobbyist at the Personal Insurance Federation of Florida representing many of the state’s top auto and homeowners insurance companies.

Greer is a familiar face in Florida politics. She started her career campaigning and has been recognized as a ‘30 under 30 Rising Star’ of Florida Politics, a ‘Rising Star’ in the lobbying industry by INFLUENCE Magazine, and with a 2016 Golden A.C.E. (Government Relations & Law) from the Tallahassee Network of Young Professionals.

Senate Majority Leader Debbie Mayfield said Greer “has distinguished herself as a trusted leader and solutions-oriented advocate who thinks beyond what’s just in front of her and uniquely understands how all the pieces work together. I look forward to seeing her continue to grow professionally in her new role.”

Gainesville Republican Rep. Chuck Clemons added, “She has been a loyal advocate for the University of Florida, helping to achieve its legislative goals year after year, and as she enters this next chapter, I have no doubt she will continue to find great success at Corcoran Partners.”

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The Southern Group is expanding its Miami-based team with the addition of local government and legislative expert Oneca Lowery.

Lowery, a fixture in South Florida politics, worked as Chief of Staff to former Senate Minority Leader Oscar Braynon II. Her policy experience includes land use and development, economic development and infrastructure, as well as legislative policymaking and appropriations.

“Oneca is a uniquely talented person who thoroughly understands Florida’s government machinery at both the local and state levels,” said firm founder and chair Paul Bradshaw. “For years she has counseled some of Florida’s most powerful political players over the course of her career, and she’s cultivated relationships across the political spectrum. I am confident our clients are going to benefit from this stellar addition to The Southern Group team.”

Over the course of her career, Lowery has served in multiple government administrations including Miami Dade County and the City of Miami Gardens, where she was instrumental in setting up the city’s comprehensive plan and building out its planning and zoning departments.

In her new role, she will harness her passion for community engagement and her knowledge of state and local government to the benefit of The Southern Group’s clients across South Florida.

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U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan is hosting a fundraiser to help the National Republican Congressional Committee close strong in the Midterm Elections.

According to an event invitation, the fundraiser will be held Saturday in Longboat Key, where the longtime Republican Congressman resides.

The host committee includes two other well-known Republicans: House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy of California and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The invitation lists suggested contributions starting at $500 per person, with larger contributions granting access to a VIP reception and VIP roundtable.

Buchanan is teed up for an easy victory in his re-election campaign for Florida’s 16th Congressional District.

However, if Republicans retake the majority in the U.S. House, as expected, Buchanan is considered the top candidate to lead the powerful Ways & Means Committee, though fellow GOP U.S. Reps. Adrian Smith of Nebraska and Jason Smith of Missouri are also gunning for the job.

Buchanan has been outraising them, however. Not including the upcoming event, Buchanan has held fundraisers for the NRCC at his home in Longboat Key, a property he owns in Michigan, and locations during a recent Pacific Coast trip.

Through mid-October, Buchanan had raised $3.1 million for the NRCC this cycle, more than any member of Congress outside sitting leadership. He has also deployed $439,000 from his own campaign and committee funds to support other Republicans’ U.S. House campaigns.

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“Vote with your feet: Post-pandemic new Floridians twice as likely to be Rs as Ds” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics — Since March 16, 2020, an estimated 394,000 active voters have flocked to Florida. They are twice as likely to be Republicans as they are to be Democrats. Since that day in mid-March — the day President Donald Trump announced the “15 Days to Slow the Spread” of the COVID-19 pandemic — 193,300 Republicans and 96,900 Democrats have moved to Florida, according to L2 data. The data reveals 393,800 Florida voters who chose the pandemic-era Sunshine State as their new home state and registered to vote here. As percentages, 46% are Republicans, 23% are Democrats and 29% are independents. In total, about 3% of Florida’s active voters are voters who moved to the state after the start of the pandemic.

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A few other items that caught my interest:

— Why does the AP call U.S. elections: Since 1848, when they declared the election for Zachary Taylor as President, The Associated Press has tallied millions of ballots nationwide to figure out which candidates won elections. But why? In an explainer, the outlet notes that the Founding Fathers didn’t establish a centralized entity to count votes and, since no one wanted to wait for weeks to learn who won what, the AP started counting votes themselves, gathering totals from individual states. The process has been refined since the early days, when gathering data was akin to using the “pony express,” to now using technology to not only count but analyze voting data. Now there’s some news you can use … at least on trivia night.

— A small change for a big fix? In part eight of his 10-part series, New York Times Chief Political Analyst Nate Cohn notes yet another way pollsters can improve on previous survey failures that underestimated Trump’s popularity in both 2016 and 2020. His previous installment noted how Trump supporters were less likely to respond to surveys than those who supported Joe Biden. But wait, there’s more: Weighting. While traditionally a useful way to capture voting sentiments on poll-wary voters, in the modern political landscape that relies on assumptions about voting patterns — such as sticking to the party line — that may no longer be accurate. Instead, he suggests “weighting by recalled vote choice,” a complicated way of saying what may seem a no-brainer, to weight based on who a voter previously supported, rather than other demographics.

— White suburban women abandon Dems: A Wall Street Journal poll shows White suburban women now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, a stunning 27-point shift away from Democrats since just August. The results suggest abortion, a key campaign point for Democrats this cycle, has faded from importance and given way to concerns about the economy and inflation. It’s bad news for Democrats, who relied heavily on support from the key voting bloc two years ago as they sought to remove Trump from office. The Journal’s August poll found that 43% of White suburban women believed the economy had entered a recession. In the most recent poll, 59% said the economy was headed in the wrong direction and, from August to now, sentiment dropped from just shy of 50% believing Democrats had a better economic plan to about 36%. Meanwhile, about 35% of the bloc believed in August that Republicans had a better plan, while now slightly more than half side with Republicans on the economy.

— Early sun = more fun: Sort of. Early morning sunlight is important to maintaining circadian rhythms, sleep-wake cycles, and overall health, according to health experts quoted in a Washington Post feature. That means daylight saving should go. Yet the Senate has voted to do the opposite, maintaining daylight saving time year-round. By doing so, experts warn individuals would be “misaligned” on their bodies’ synchronization with the sun. WaPo illustrates, literally, with a little blue dude complete with an internal clock. That clock regulates important timing, including cardiac function, metabolism, and hormone fluctuations. In a nutshell, most people’s internal clock runs slightly longer than 24 hours. The sun resets that clock and puts the body back in sync with the 24-hour day. Daylight saving alters that process, at least temporarily making our bodies think we are going to bed and waking up too early, losing sleep at both ends of the cycle. Check it out here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@ElonMusk: you get what you pay for

—@AOC: Lmao at a billionaire earnestly trying to sell people on the idea that “free speech” is actually an $8/mo subscription plan

—@Will_da_beast630: This claim that — because homicide/serious violent crime increased ~40%, and then declined 1-2% — “Crime is down” may be the most stupidly dishonest use of stats I have ever seen.

—@DouthatNYT: This point is especially crucial — the system we have doesn’t ask “Whites” to bear some kind of extra burden to redress past wrongs, it asks middle-class White people without connections to bear that burden while professional-class Whites work the system and do fine

—@NGrossman81: More Americans today say we’re in a recession than did two months ago, and in that time the economy grew at a rate of over 2% and created over 650k new jobs. Heck, even gas prices decreased. I don’t know how to explain that except that campaigns and media influence perceptions.

—@AmyEWalter: The way that many folks cover the final few days of an election is like covering a baseball game in just the 9th inning. You can’t appreciate the final score unless you appreciate the events of the entire game

—@KevinCate: If Republicans take Miami-Dade, it isn’t a bellwether event; it’s a nail.

—@DaveTrotter101: In the FDP post-mortem, we also need to look at what Republicans are doing right. First thing I can think of … paying people. For a political party that claims to be for higher wages, it’s amazing how many Democrats want to be cheap or not pay people for their work.

—@AGlorios: It’s another gorgeous day in Tallahassee. This is the most underrated city in Florida. It has four seasons, beautiful rolling hills and giant oak trees with hanging Spanish moss. It’s affordable. It’s a government and university town. Life is loving what you’ve got.

— DAYS UNTIL —

2022 General Election — 5; ‘The Crown’ Season 5 returns — 6; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 8; FITCon 2022 begins — 14; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 14; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 18; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 21; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 30; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 30; 2022 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 32; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 33; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 43; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 59; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 90; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 106; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 107; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 124; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 142; Taylor Swift ‘Eras’ Tour in Tampa — 163; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 166; 2023 Session Sine Die — 183; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 183; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 211; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 260; ‘‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 267; Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 365; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 512; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 568; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 631; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 631; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 673; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 736; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 834; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 911. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,100.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

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