Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 11.10.22

 Good Thursday morning.

As if Gov. Ron DeSantis didn’t have enough things go his way Tuesday in Florida, voters in many other parts of the country reared up and said they are tired of Donald Trump and all his drama.

Trump’s endorsement was magic four years ago, but not this time. The Mar-a-Lago Menace backed losers like Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. Tudor Dixon, Trump’s choice for Governor in Michigan, went down. Herschel Walker is behind in Georgia, although that race likely will go to a runoff.

What does this mean for DeSantis?

Maybe everything. He may have just become the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

Trump is the COVID-19 of politicians. No matter how often voters inoculate themselves against him, a new variant of him always pops up, and it’s happening again. The latest is his promise of a “very big announcement” on Nov. 15 about his future.

Gee, whatever could it be?

However, the lying, election-denying, three-timing candidate may find DeSantis a different kind of cat from the sycophant Republicans who kiss his, um, ring.

Say what you will about DeSantis — and I have — he is no sycophant. He won this election without any help from the big guy. And following his smashing re-election win Tuesday, DeSantis has no reason to cower from Trump or any other challenger in 2024.

And given what happened in other parts of the country, DeSantis just got the green light to go for the gold in two years.

Trump cemented DeSantis’ status as a top contender for the GOP presidential nomination by gifting him a nickname — DeSanctimonius.

Actually, that’s clever — and not inaccurate.

DeSantis, of course, has repeatedly brushed aside suggestions that he plans a presidential run in two years. Raise your hand if you believe him. Trump clearly does not.

It will be interesting to see if DeSantis pivots toward more moderate positions in his second term. He spent much of his first four years positioning himself as a culture warrior, making him a darling to many in the GOP. But even though Tuesday’s takeaway was more cracks in the Trump facade, the bigger message could be that voters are tired of the noise.

Trump, of course, continues to spread the lie that forces of darkness stole the 2020 election, a position many GOP candidates parroted. DeSantis didn’t take that bait unless you want to count his silly election police force as at least a nibble at the hook.

DeSantis might be the Republicans’ Next Big Thing, but he’ll still need support from the middle. You don’t get that by banning books and picking fights with Disney.

Trump clearly believes DeSantis owes him fealty for the endorsement that powered DeSantis to victory in the 2018 Governor’s race. But among other things, DeSantis is foremost a cutthroat politician. Trump may have created him but finds it impossible to control him.

So, with the formality of this election over and done, we await the main event. Get your popcorn ready.

Trump.

DeSantis.

This time, it’s personal.

___

— National takeaways from Election Night: While Florida saw a red tsunami within its borders, the rest of the nation didn’t experience the wave that was expected. As New York Times Politics Editor Blake Hounshell notes in his five takeaways from Tuesday night, voter turnout exceeded expectations, which helped Democrats hold on in areas they feared upsets; abortion did indeed make a difference at the ballot box; Trump didn’t trump in many races; inflation dominated, and it’s clear now the country is as divided as ever. The Trump phenomenon is perhaps the most interesting, as his insertion into the Midterms by propping up extreme candidates may have hampered overall GOP performance.

— Outside the crystal ball: Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik put together an insightful analysis of nationwide results from this year’s Midterm Election. He notes, as have others, that “the GOP’s lack of discipline in candidate selection cost them a number of races,” an outcome that saw Republicans enjoy red-wave activity in some states, like Florida, but Democrats showing “impressive strength” in much of the nation. Read more here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@Redistrict: Well, that was the craziest Election Night I’ve ever seen.

—@DavidAFrench: Turns out the GOP base actually needed some of the folks that it mocked, scorned, and bullied right out the party.

—@EricLDaugh: Serious question for @NateSilver538. I get there’s outliers. I understand there are mistakes. This poll was just a week or so before the election from “The Listener Group” and it had (Charlie) Crist winning by 7. DeSantis won by 19.5. That’s a 26.5% “error.” You gonna ban them?

—@JayObTV: (Joe) BIDEN WAS ASKED: Who do you think is the tougher competitor, DeSantis or Trump? “It would be fun to watch them take

—@BrianStelter: Post-Midterms data point: Between midnight and noon ET, Fox News programs mentioned DeSantis more often than Trump, according to my @TVEyesInc searches.

—@MaggieNYT: Trump is indeed furious this morning, particularly about Mehmet Oz, and is blaming everyone who advised him to back Oz — including his wife, describing it as not her best decision, according to people close to him. There are people pushing Trump to reschedule his announcement next week, and several Rs have texted asking whether he will, but it’s risky and would be acknowledging he’s wounded by yesterday, something that some of his advisers insist is not the case

—@CharlieCrist: Thank you all for raising your voices with me, for standing up for our freedoms and our democracy. I’m eternally grateful for your support. Together, we stood up for what’s right and we treated everyone with dignity and respect. I am very proud of that — and you should be, too.

—@SamantaJoRoth: Biden in his post-Midterms speech mentions that he called @MaxwellFrostFL last night to congratulate him on his victory. “I have no doubt he’s off to an incredible start of what I’m sure will be a long, distinguished career.”

—@TheRickWilson: What the fuck did you THINK would happen? The Florida GOP is the single best Republican Party in the country, hands down. It has infinite money, a deep bench of consultants and operatives, and *wins.*

—@NikkiFried: Appreciate the love, but I am NOT running to be Chair of @FlaDems. A lot of things need to change to restore our winning coalition from 2018 — and I will continue fighting for that — just not by taking over the party.

—@MicheleforFL: Today is the first day, in two years, that I’m not actively running for office. 24 months. The rest I’m finna have. Thank you to all my supporters+friends. I love y’all. Lastly, Florida, you won’t break my soul. Because at the end of the story- THE PEOPLE ALWAYS WIN.

Tweet, tweet:

Hurricane preps are a bit different this time of year. #Nicole pic.twitter.com/12lAtUr6Pd

— Paul Dellegatto⚡️FOX (@PaulFox13) November 9, 2022

— DAYS UNTIL —

‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 1; FITCon 2022 begins — 6; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 7; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 11; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 14; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 23; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 23; 2022 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 25; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 26; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 36; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 52; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 83; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 99; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 100; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 117; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 135; Taylor Swift ‘Eras’ Tour in Tampa — 156; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 159; 2023 Session Sine Die — 176; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 176; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 204; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 253; ‘‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 260; Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 358; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 505; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 561; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 624; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 624; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 666; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 729; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 827; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 904. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,093.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

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