Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.27.22

 Good Thursday morning.

Another poll is predicting Gov. Ron DeSantis will stomp Charlie Crist on Election Day.

According to the poll, conducted by Cherry Communications for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, the Republican incumbent is up 11 points over the Democrat Congressman, 53% to 42%.

DeSantis is likewise dominating among voter blocs that traditionally break for Democrats. Hispanic voters favor him 59%-37%. Team DeSantis’ 53%-42% among independent voters is equally jaw-dropping.

The real knife-twister comes from the gender breakdown, however, with women backing DeSantis 49%-46% despite Crist’s campaign putting substantial resources into making the race a referendum on abortion rights.

DeSantis’ approval rating jibes with his electoral advantage — a full 56% of voters told the pollster they approve of the job he’s done through nearly four years in office. Meanwhile, 50% of likely Florida voters believe the state is headed in the “right direction” compared to 40% who say it’s on the “wrong track.”

Finally, as most would have guessed, it looks like President Joe Biden would do more harm than good if he parachuted into the state as just 56% of voters say he’s falling short halfway through his first term.

The Chamber poll also showed expectedly large gaps between incumbent Attorney General Ashley Moody and CFO Jimmy Patronis and their Democratic challengers. Moody enjoys a 15-point lead over former State Attorney Aramis Ayala while Patronis is up 10% over former Rep. Adam Hattersley.

Cherry Communications conducted the poll Oct. 13-23 during live telephone interviews with likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

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Crist’s chances may be dwindling, but his campaign is still on the attack during the final two weeks of the race.

Their latest salvo comes in the form of a new ad titled “Getting By.” Notably, it eschews talk of social issues or abortion rights and focuses on the issue that’s surged to the top of voters’ minds in the eleventh-hour of the cycle: the economy.

“Whether you work in a factory, an office, or fixing cars, Ron DeSantis is making it harder to get by,” Crist says, while strolling toward the camera in an auto shop.

“He hiked sales taxes by a billion and said skyrocketing insurance costs weren’t his problem. Well, they’re a problem for you. DeSantis won’t fix it, I will.”

The ad drops shortly after the campaign announced it had received an influx of support in the days since Crist and DeSantis met on a debate stage.

Though the latest volley of polling says otherwise, Team Crist on Wednesday claimed the momentum is swinging back toward the Congressman’s campaign and pointed to more than $500,000 in new contributions it’s received over the past week — including $225,000 on the day after the debate.

According to a news release, that money is being used by way of a “seven-figure ad buy” that covers “media markets across the state.” The ad will hit the airwaves today.

To watch the ad, please click on the image below:

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Here are some other nuggets:

— How a college education divides Americans: A new podcast on FiveThirtyEight evaluates how educational attainment is shaping American politics, with experts evaluating how the socio-economic divide and tendencies for college graduates to live in more urban areas is shaping the state of electoral politics in the modern era. FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver also looks at how history has shaped disparities as college attendance becomes even more mainstream. As Republicans continue to appear the party most likely to appeal to non-college grads, and Democrats consistently face the “liberal elite” label as a negative, the trend is an interesting exercise in political strategy. Listen here.

— The impeachment of Joe Biden: For Democrats, it’s an easy threat to dismiss. For what, they might ask? But for many Republicans, it’s a prediction that may well prove to be a reality, despite the extreme unlikeliness of the Senate, even under Republican control, to deliver a conviction. As The Atlantic points out in its evaluation, two-thirds of the Republican caucus in the House voted to overturn the Presidential Election in 2020, and a large swath of would-be newcomers hailing from safe red districts have campaigned as election deniers, providing evidence that desire will be there fueled by deep distrust in the current administration. Further, A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll in May found that 69% of Republican voters think the House should impeach Biden.

— Maybe Get Z is just kinder: A must-listen episode of The New York Times podcast “The Argument” with Jane Coaston looks at how America’s youngest voters, those 26 and younger, are shaping politics. This age cohort came of age during the Donald Trump presidency and in the throes of a pandemic. They have been inundated in their few years as voting adults by issues relating to reproductive rights, racial inequality, and rampant school shootings. Their experiences make them less faithful to party loyalty, with priorities centering on issues, not sides of the aisle. But the question for now is, will they show up to vote and, if they do, will there be enough of them to sway elections? Listen here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@marcorubio: New evidence & a 2nd arrest discredited the narrative pushed by a “journalist” at the dying Miami Herald about the attack on a GOP canvasser in #Florida and instead of focusing on the criminals who did this she emails questions that show she plans to smear the victim as a liar

Tweet, tweet:

I’m honored to celebrate early voting with two champions, Rep. @DWStweets and Mayor @WayneMessam in North Miami. This election we have great candidates on the ballot who have what it takes to fight the good fight for all people. But it starts with our votes. pic.twitter.com/IirSU9Ugk7

— Val Demings (@valdemings) October 26, 2022

—@fineout: During his campaign stop tonight in Freeport @RonDeSantisFL mentions — as he did during the debate — that Fla. Democrats in U.S. House asked him to issue a stay-at-home order in July 2020. “I crumpled up the letter and threw it in the trash,” he said.

Tweet, tweet:

How did Republicans do it? By dominating early voting.
Republicans have cast 191,000 – or 53% of the 361,000 early votes. Democrats’ 110,000 early votes represent a 31% share. On Wednesday alone, Republicans erased 18,000 votes from the Democrats’ turnout lead.

— Fresh Take Florida (@FreshTakeFla) October 26, 2022

Tweet, tweet:

Trump doing @marcorubio rally Sunday before election

Who is not on this invite? pic.twitter.com/MdtabgISAp

— Matt Dixon (@Mdixon55) October 26, 2022

—@ccadelago: Donald Trump’s apparent snub of Ron DeSantis angered some people within the Governor’s orbit, who complained that his team wasn’t notified of the Florida rally with Marco Rubio

Tweet, tweet:

Marco Rubio “canvasser,” who was paid $10,000 by the Florida Republican Party, in Charlottesville in 2017. pic.twitter.com/BiGXNuVkPA

— Ron Filipkowski ???????? (@RonFilipkowski) October 26, 2022

—@anaceballos_: More pro-DeSantis mailers showing up out-of-state. This time in Virginia. Others have popped up in Wisconsin, a swing state.

— DAYS UNTIL —

2022 General Election — 12; ‘The Crown’ Season 5 returns — 13; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 15; FITCon 2022 begins — 21; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 21; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 25; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 28; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 37; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 37; 2022 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 39; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 40; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 50; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 66; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 97; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 113; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 114; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 131; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 149; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 173; 2023 Session Sine Die — 190; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 190; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 218; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 267; ‘‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 274; Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 372; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 519; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 575; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 638; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 638; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 680; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 743; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 841; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 918. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,107.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

The post Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.27.22 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..