Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.26.22

 Good Wednesday morning.

I’m back from the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s #F3 event where I scooped the Jackie Toledo lawsuit story while enjoying cocktails at the stunning Dahlia Lounge atop Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort. Offered some hot hot hot hot takes while sitting on a panel with smart guys Rick Asnani and Max Goodman (expertly moderated by Nick Catroppo). The “spotted” list is too long to list.

In all, a very productive 36 hours.

The second day of the Forum focused on insurance, infrastructure, and emerging industries that could help the Sunshine State diversify its economy and build a powerhouse workforce ready for the jobs of tomorrow.

With the property insurance market in free fall, the Florida Chamber used the Forum to announce it has formed a new group made up of member companies’ risk managers, litigation directors and general counsels. This “Council of General Counsels” will strategize on ways to improve the state’s civil justice system, particularly on strategies to curb litigation.

Infrastructure’s time in the spotlight focused on how improvements to Florida’s ports, roadways, and the expansion of private commuter rail are helping the state prepare for millions of new residents and visitors, as well as position itself to become a major player in logistics.

Attendees also heard about the state’s promising future in manufacturing and the private space exploration industry, both of which could add tens of billions to Florida’s GDP in the coming years — according to a couple of aerospace execs, Florida is already on the path to be a “ground node” in what is expected to be a $1 trillion global industry.

Capping the Future of Florida Forum was a message putting all the pieces together on how businesses of all kinds can come together to shape the state’s future through education, politics, workforce development and more.

Check out Florida Politics for more takeaways from the Future of Florida Forum.

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The University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab conducts a lot of polls, but it’s not known for accuracy.

How bad is it? Well, just two months ago its final poll of the Democratic Primary for Governor showed Nikki Fried leading Charlie Crist, 47%-43% — so, only about 30 points off, or about as accurate as asking anyone decently familiar with the race and then chucking everything they say into the garbage.

That said, their latest General Election poll puts Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis ahead of Crist by 14 points, 55%-41%. That’s a large spread, but it’s not impossible. Really, a double-digit DeSantis victory seems more likely by the day.

Things are not looking much better for Val Demings, who is trailing Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio by 11 points. Most other pollsters concur that Rubio’s lead is growing — maybe not to double digits, but still a comfortable win for the incumbent isn’t a sucker bet.

But if the numbers are coming from UNF-PORL, well, then it’s either like your out-of-touch uncle buying Bitcoin or GameStop stock two weeks before they go bust, or Crist and Demings are walking into the biggest electoral bloodbath Florida has seen in decades.

Of course, UNF-PORL could be on point. Stranger things have happened.

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The Florida Association of Community Health Centers has selected Jonathan Chapman as its next president and CEO, effective Dec. 1.

In his new role, Chapman will work to further FACHC’s mission of safeguarding the stability of the state’s Community Health Centers and ensuring equitable access to primary care for all Floridians.

Chapman has worked to boost primary care access for 20 years, and most recently worked as the Chief Project Officer for Capital Link, a nonprofit organization that works with health centers and primary care associations.

“I am extremely pleased with the direction the Board of Directors has taken, bringing in Jonathan as FACHC’s new President and CEO,” said Andrew Behrman, FACHC’s exiting President and CEO. “Jonathan’s energy and talent are a great fit for the association, and I know he will be a fantastic leader.”

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Alzheimer’s Service Coordinators meet in D.C. — This week, the Alzheimer’s Association kicks off the first-ever Dementia Services Coordinator Conference in Washington. This inaugural event brings together state agency officials from 26 states and the District of Columbia to collaborate, share their experiences and discuss solutions to help the 6 million Americans living with Alzheimer’s and their families. Florida’s Dementia Director Cari Eyre is attending, along with Alzheimer’s Association Florida Chapters Vice President of Public Policy Alexander Anderson. The Dementia Director position is based in the Florida Department of Elder Affairs.

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Here are some other nuggets:

— Yep, there are fewer polls: Polling errors in 2016 and 2020 led many to question whether the time-honored surveys can be trusted, or if they should even be paid much attention. The result, as FiveThirtyEight notes in its Morning Distribution newsletter, has been fewer surveys and, of those, more conducted by partisan pollsters or sponsored by partisan organizations, which can skew results. Though polling snafus in recent years give a reason for some pause, polling still supplies useful data to gauge public sentiment and forecast elections.

— Can Dems survive the landing back to earth? Democrats were elevated in August and into early September by a surge in polling buoyed by deep frustration over the Supreme Court decision regarding Roe v. Wade. But as is often the case, tensions calmed, and Americans now have a new concern: the economy. Polling has done an about-face, and Dems are plummeting back toward earth as they grapple with how to survive a rough landing. While trends are, at the moment, on the GOP’s side (as is history), Nate Cohn, in his “The Tilt” newsletter, posits that voters should expect just about anything come Election Day. Read more here.

— Will the Latino vote continue to shift toward the GOP? There has been a lot of talk, and media coverage, this Midterm cycle about the importance of the Latino vote and trends suggesting it’s slipping further from Democrats and drawing closer to Republicans. A Washington Post analysis takes a deep dive into the voting bloc, known as one of several groups that serve as a decider in elections. In Florida, for example, big shifts were seen in three congressional districts, the 26th, 27th, and 28th, with more people voting for Donald Trump from the 2016 to 2020 elections. Similar trends are clear in Hispanic-heavy districts in Texas and California. The piece looks at what’s fueling the trend, whether it might continue and what it means for outcomes this cycle. Dive in here.

— Republicans and Democrats are flooding airwaves with competing stories: Democrats are unloading millions of dollars on ads lamenting GOP-led abortion restrictions while Republicans are spending big on ads threatening grave dangers related to inflation and increased taxes, which typically tie candidates to President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And while Democrats have backed off the Trump attacks, they are plenty willing to attack GOP candidates’ characters. That’s the top-line takeaway from a sweeping political ad analysis in The Washington Post highlighting the two very different narratives dominating politics this cycle. Read more about the spending breakdown and strategy here.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@Scott_Maxwell: The same moment viewed thru two different lenses: Crist says name-calling should be beneath a Governor. RPOF not only embraces the name-calling but thinks Florida voters will too, turning it into a meme. And based on Trump winning Fla the last *2* cycles, they may well be right.

—@NewsGuyGreg: The data is glaring. 2022 General v. 2018 General FL Republicans have 595K MORE voters FL Democrats have just 26K more. 443K more NPA voters. HUGE GOP gains and DEM losses. But elections are all about TURN OUT.

—@DaveTrotter101: Nowcast model updated. GOP takes a chunk, but Democrats still in the lead. That being said, Democrats are in BIG TROUBLE in Orange and Duval counties. Major underperformance. That might not hurt in local races in Orange but will statewide and locally in Duval!

Tweet, tweet:

NEW @CookPolitical: 10 House rating changes this week, including four Dem incumbents from Lean D to Toss Up and two – #AKAL Mary Peltola (D) and #KS03 Sharice Davids (D) – from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis: https://t.co/QxOmHybgEl pic.twitter.com/tFYim1sNT6

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 25, 2022

—@LarrySabato: SHORT BRIEF ON POLLING: It’s the poll flood season. Here’s all polls can really do. They can tell you when a contest IS close (candidates are within a few points of each other in the average), and they can tell you when a contest ISN’T close (one candidate leads well outside MOE)

Tweet, tweet:

Thank you to our FL legislators who attended today’s #NewCollegeChallenge launch. Here’s to envisioning a resilient future for our students and communities together! @isayray @FionaForFlorida @JimBoydFL @JoeGruters pic.twitter.com/KQvV8DL8it

— New College of Florida (@NewCollegeofFL) October 25, 2022

— DAYS UNTIL —

City & State Florida Digital Summit — 1; 2022 General Election — 13; ‘The Crown’ Season 5 returns — 14; ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ premieres — 16; FITCon 2022 begins — 22; ‘The Flash’ premieres — 22; The World Cup kicks off in Qatar — 26; The U.S. World Cup Soccer Team begins play — 29; Florida TaxWatch’s Annual Meeting begins — 38; ‘Willow’ premieres on Disney+ — 38; 2022 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit — 40; Cormac McCarthy’s ‘Stella Maris’ releases — 41; ‘Avatar 2’ premieres — 51; final Broadway performance of ‘The Music Man’ with Hugh Jackman — 67; Bruce Springsteen launches his 2023 tour in Tampa — 98; ‘Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ premieres — 114; final performance of ‘Phantom of the Opera’ on Broadway — 115; 2023 Legislative Session convenes — 132; ‘John Wick: Chapter 4′ premieres — 150; American Association of Political Consultants Pollies ’23 conference begins — 174; 2023 Session Sine Die — 191; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ premieres — 191; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 219; Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ premieres — 268; ‘‘Captain Marvel 2′ premieres — 275; Dune: Part Two’ premieres — 373; ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Part 2 premieres — 520; ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ premieres — 576; Opening Ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games — 639; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres — 639; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres — 681; ‘Deadpool 3’ premieres — 744; ‘Fantastic Four’ reboot premieres — 842; ‘Avengers: The Kang Dynasty’ premieres — 919. ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 1,108.

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Renzo Downey, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

The post Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.26.22 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..